A new survey by the sociological agency Market Links shows that if parliamentary elections were held now, five political formations would enter the National Assembly, with the future coalition around Rumen Radev clearly in the lead. According to the data, Radev’s formation would win 25.6% of the vote among those who say they would participate, followed by center-right GERB with 15.4% and the liberals from We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) with 12.5%. Also crossing the parliamentary threshold are “DPS-New Beginning” (led by infamous oligarch Delyan Peevski, sanctioned under the Magnitsky Act) with 10.5% and the right-wing nationalist party “Revival” with 4.5%, while left-wing formations remain well below the 4% barrier.

The study was presented on bTV and was carried out jointly by the media outlet and the agency between February 7 and 13, 2026. It covered 1,019 respondents aged 18 and over, using both face-to-face interviews and an online survey. According to the snapshot, 56% of Bulgarians currently declare readiness to vote, a significantly higher level of electoral engagement compared to the turnout of 38.94% recorded in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

Further reading: NATO Pilot, Putin Sympathizer, or Something Else? Who Is Rumen Radev and Why Did He Just Blow Up Bulgarian Politics

Commenting on the results, Market Links managing partner Dobromir Zhivkov said Radev has clear potential to emerge as the leading political force, but stressed that there is no mass surge comparable to earlier political breakthroughs, such as the rise of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha or GERB’s ascent in 2009. In his assessment, public attitudes remain strongly personalized rather than program-driven, with voters continuing to place their trust primarily in individual figures.

Further reading: Will Radev and the Liberals Join Forces? What the Caretaker PM Choice Really Means for Bulgaria

In terms of public confidence, the National Assembly ranks at the bottom of institutional trust indicators. Radev currently enjoys the highest level of personal trust, followed by the leader of “Revival” Kostadin Kostadinov. GERB leader Boyko Borissov comes third in approval ratings, with "Morality, Unity, Honor" (MECH) leader Radostin Vassilev following. Zhivkov noted that the early-voting electorate shows stronger eurosceptic and more pro-Russian tendencies.

If the projected results were translated into mandates in a 240-seat parliament, Radev’s formation would receive 89 seats, GERB 54, WCC-DB 44, DPS-New Beginning 37, and Revival 16. MECH, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and several other currently represented parties would remain outside parliament. At an assumed turnout of 56%, this would mean roughly 900,000 votes for Radev’s coalition, equivalent to around 14% of Bulgaria’s total population.

In a 240-seat National Assembly, a party or coalition needs at least 121 seats to form a government on its own.

Based on the Market Links projection, the formation around Rumen Radev would secure 89 seats with 25.6% of the vote.

This means that Radev would fall short by 32 seats of the minimum required to govern alone. Even as the leading political force, he would not be able to form a single-party government and would need support from at least one other parliamentary group to reach a governing majority.

Further reading: Rumen Radev to Reveal Coalition Partners and Program by March 4 Ahead of Early Elections

The survey also registers growing confidence in Radev personally, with trust standing at 51%, an increase of six percentage points compared to the previous month. This rise comes despite the fact that he has not yet publicly announced coalition partners, candidates, or detailed policies, beyond pledges to dismantle what he describes as an entrenched oligarchic model and to combat corruption.

Radev has confirmed, both in Bulgaria and during meetings with Bulgarian communities abroad, including in Berlin, that he will take part in the early elections through a coalition rather than a newly registered party. He has said that the coalition’s name, structure and program will be officially submitted to the Central Election Commission no later than March 4, in line with all legal deadlines. Until then, he is deliberately withholding details about partners and candidates, citing concerns about institutional pressure and last-minute attempts to block the initiative.

He has also announced that on March 4 a public bank account will be opened to allow citizens to provide voluntary financial support for the campaign. According to Radev, messages of backing are already arriving from across the country and from Bulgarians living abroad, whom he sees as a key part of his broader political objective to reverse emigration trends and encourage a return to Bulgaria.