Total inflation in Bulgaria’s economy and healthcare system reached 31 percent between the end of 2021 and the end of 2025, according to economist Stoyan Panchev from the Expert Club for Economics and Politics (EKIP). He presented the figures at a press conference focused on prices and inflation in healthcare, BGNES reported.

The event was opened by the Chairman of the Bulgarian Medical Union (BLS), Prof. Dr. Nikolay Brunzalov, at the headquarters of the Bulgarian Medical Association. He explained that BLS is hosting the discussion and that economists Arkadi Sharkov and Stoyan Panchev would present the findings of a study titled “Prices and Inflation in Healthcare”.

The analysis examines several key issues, including inflationary pressures and price lag in the healthcare sector, the impact of regulated and free prices on medical services and patient co-payments, as well as worsening medium-term trends driven by demographic change, the introduction of innovative therapies, and the growing role of artificial intelligence in medicine.

Panchev stressed that the healthcare system is increasingly affected by demographic factors, describing it as a system “built entirely on demography”. He noted that healthcare is currently experiencing a distinct pro-inflationary phase and pointed out significant gaps in official statistics. According to him, data from the National Statistical Institute does not reflect the full picture, as it excludes clinical pathways, which account for around 65 percent of total healthcare costs.

Reiterating his earlier point, Panchev said that cumulative inflation in both the overall economy and healthcare amounted to 31 percent over the four-year period. Arkadi Sharkov added that a slowdown in inflation should not be mistaken for a decline in prices, emphasizing that costs continue to rise even when inflation rates ease.

The study shows that in 2025, 207 clinical pathways, representing 77 percent of all pathways, require price adjustments to reach what the authors define as fair value. At current volumes, funding for clinical pathways would need to increase by 77 percent to reach 3.26 billion euros, compared to the agreed level of 1.84 billion euros for 2025.

Looking further ahead, the experts warned that the healthcare system will face growing pressure from “more needs and fewer payers” as a result of Bulgaria’s demographic decline. By 2060, the age dependency ratio is projected to rise sharply from 37 percent to 66 percent.

In conclusion, Panchev argued that substantial investments in human capital will be unavoidable. Sharkov, in turn, said that with elections approaching, lawmakers must place healthcare much higher on their agenda. Prof. Brunzalov added that Bulgarian doctors have fulfilled their professional responsibilities and continue to do so despite the challenges.

He also expressed concern about the scale of the economic deficit facing the healthcare system, noting the unstable political environment. With an election campaign looming, he said almost every party is likely to declare healthcare a priority, but real solutions remain uncertain.

Asked whether there is political backing for increasing the health insurance contribution, Brunzalov summed up the situation bluntly: “There is dialogue, but there is no support.”