In Bulgaria, fuel prices remain largely unchanged, with the international oil market continuing to respond to tensions between the United States and Iran. Svetoslav Benchev, Chairman of the Bulgarian Oil and Gas Association, explained on B NT that domestic fuel trends are currently stable, despite volatility in global crude markets. He attributed recent price swings to media references to words like “armada” and “deal,” noting that prices briefly rose to around $ 70 per barrel before dropping back to $ 66. Analysts, including Benchev, anticipate oil overproduction this year, which should prevent any major price hikes.

Benchev added that short-term fluctuations in global markets typically do not translate into immediate changes in Bulgaria. “For a serious shift in domestic fuel prices, international movements would need to persist for at least 10 to 15 days. Unless extraordinary events occur, I do not foresee a substantial rise in crude or fuel costs,” he said.

Global oil supply continues to outpace consumption. Despite OPEC quotas and production limits from countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia, additional volumes, including U.S. shale oil, continue to enter the market, affecting the balance between supply and demand.

However, Benchev warned that the Bulgarian fuel sector faces significant challenges beyond price stability. A study by the Center for the Study of Democracy revealed that approximately 17% of diesel in the country - roughly 690 million liters annually - is sold through the gray market, costing the state up to 350 million euros in lost taxes and excise duties. He noted that existing electronic monitoring systems are sometimes manipulated, creating systemic problems that require solutions, such as removing compromised systems from circulation.

Benchev also highlighted that unusually low prices for gasoline, which average 1.23 euros per liter in Bulgaria, may indicate unpaid excise duty or VAT, or other non-market practices. Consumers purchasing fuel at these reduced rates are not guaranteed product quality.

Regarding exports, Benchev pointed to restrictions that prevent Bulgarian fuel from being sold abroad. “The National Assembly still has not lifted the export ban, which poses significant challenges for business. Domestic demand is fully met, and refineries are operating at optimal capacity, but the inability to export limits growth opportunities,” he said.

Overall, while fuel prices remain stable, Benchev stressed the importance of addressing the gray market and export restrictions to ensure both fair pricing and long-term stability for Bulgaria’s energy sector.