President Rumen Radev has officially submitted his resignation to the Constitutional Court, signaling the start of a new chapter in Bulgarian politics. Analysts expect him to soon announce his own political project and clarify whether he will participate in the upcoming early parliamentary elections. Political scientist Daniel Smilov, journalist Ruja Raicheva, and political scientist Prof. Rosen Stoyanov have commented on the potential impact of Radev’s move on Bulgarian TV.

Further reading: NATO Pilot, Putin Sympathizer, or Something Else? Who Is Rumen Radev and Why Did He Just Blow Up Bulgarian Politics

Ruja Raicheva noted that Radev’s recent speech suggests he may be seeking a more moderate, centrist role after his previous appeals to more radical Eurosceptic voters, particularly those attracted by his proposed referendum. “But hasn’t there been an expectation from his potential voters that he would act like the new Orban, imposing Bulgaria’s will in the EU? It is not clear which path he will take, and it will depend on his potential partners,” she said.

Daniel Smilov emphasized that Radev’s future party could take very different directions: one pro-European and centrist, the other closer to the Orban model. “The differences are not just about EU policy, but also about domestic governance. Orban-style politics involve controlling institutions and limiting civil society. If Radev follows that path, it will complicate any partnership with WCC-DB,” Smilov explained. He noted, however, that the two sides largely agree on anti-corruption goals, though discrepancies may arise in decision-making.

Prof. Rosen Stoyanov highlighted that until Radev formally announces his political project, discussions about lists and potential vote shares are speculative. “The president must clarify his intentions before these details can be considered,” he said.

The composition of Radev’s team is another key question. Smilov asked whether new members will lean toward pro-Russian positions or not, while Raicheva expects a mix of familiar figures and unexpected entrants. “If Radev aims for a large share of votes or even a parliamentary majority, many new people must meaningfully fill these positions,” she noted. Raicheva also mentioned that the new formation will need to address contentious issues such as the contract with Botas.

Analysts predict that Radev’s entry into parliamentary politics will bring broader systemic shifts. “Fragmentation may decrease,” Smilov said. “Currently, there are nine parties. In the next parliament, we may see fewer. This could prevent GERB and DPS from holding a blocking quota for forming a government. If a pro-European majority emerges, it will enjoy broader legitimacy. But if an anti-European bloc forms, the outcome could be very different.”

Prof. Stoyanov added that the next parliament could include five parties and still face difficulty forming a stable coalition, potentially leading to another round of elections. “It will not be possible to form a principled majority. Any coalition may simply recreate the status quo,” he said.

Former Defense Minister Todor Tagarev commented that smaller Russophile parties are likely to lose support as Radev enters the elections. “I expect that half of this electorate will back the president,” he said. Tagarev argued that while Radev tries to position himself as an anti-system, anti-corruption figure, in reality, past caretaker cabinets reveal hidden dependencies. He added that Radev will present himself as somewhat European, but has not consistently demonstrated a fully pro-European orientation.

Tagarev also questioned Vice President Iliana Yotova’s readiness to serve as Supreme Commander-in-Chief and president following Radev’s resignation, highlighting ongoing uncertainties about the country’s leadership transition.