Iran is reportedly preparing to sever most of its connections to the global internet, allowing only regime-approved individuals to maintain access, according to Iranian digital rights groups. Filterwatch, an organisation monitoring censorship in the country, said the plan would transform international internet access into a “governmental privilege,” signaling a permanent shift that could extend beyond 2026.

Under the proposed system, citizens who pass government vetting or hold security clearance would have access to a filtered version of the global internet, while the majority would be restricted to the national internet - a domestic network entirely disconnected from the outside world. The current shutdown, in effect since 8 January amid escalating anti-regime protests, is among the longest in modern history, surpassing the 2011 internet blackout in Egypt. The blackout has severely limited the flow of information out of the country, with authorities citing security concerns. A government spokesperson indicated the shutdown would continue at least until Nowruz, the Persian New Year, on 20 March.

Amir Rashidi, head of Filterwatch, said authorities appear satisfied with the current level of internet control, believing the shutdown has helped suppress dissent. A former US State Department official described the prospect of a permanent disconnection as plausible but costly, noting the economic and cultural repercussions would be significant.

Iran’s effort to isolate its digital space has been ongoing for over 16 years. Since the 2009 Green Movement protests, authorities have progressively built a whitelisted system, allowing a select few access while blocking ordinary citizens. Researchers from Project Ainita and Outline Foundation note that Chinese technology likely enabled high-capacity monitoring devices, or “middleboxes,” that inspect and filter internet traffic nationwide. This setup allows authorities to block websites, protocols, and VPNs while spying on individual users.

The national internet, accessible only domestically, offers regime-approved messaging apps, search engines, navigation services, and streaming platforms, entirely separated from the global internet. Efforts to build this network intensified after the 2009 protests, when a full internet shutdown caused massive disruption. By 2012, Iran established the Supreme Council of Cyberspace and began formalizing the national internet, gradually relocating key infrastructure - datacenters and offices - inside the country using incentives and restrictions on foreign-based entities.

The system has been tested through repeated shutdowns during protests, including partial blocking of social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Analysts note that the current national internet has maintained connectivity for Iranians while isolating them from international networks. Yet, the regime faces limits: maintaining a fully disconnected national internet is economically burdensome. NetBlocks estimates the current blackout costs Iran over USD37 million. Past shutdowns, including during the 2022–2023 Mahsa Amini protests, cut online business activity significantly and led to losses exceeding USD1.6 billion.

The Iranian regime relies heavily on digital infrastructure for commerce, banking, and communication, and prolonged disruptions risk deepening economic hardship and public unrest. Only about 1% of internet connections remain active, mainly controlled by state entities for propaganda purposes. Experts warn that while the authorities could technically enforce a permanent split from the global internet, the political, social, and economic fallout could be immense, potentially fueling further protests in an already fragile environment.