Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has acknowledged a serious personnel crisis within its armed forces, with newly appointed minister Mykhailo Fedorov revealing that around two million Ukrainians have deserted military service, while nearly 200,000 soldiers are currently absent without authorization. The disclosure, made on January 14, highlights challenges that Kyiv has previously avoided discussing publicly amid ongoing Russian attacks and stalled peace negotiations.

Fedorov, 35, appeared before parliament pledging to reform the military and address longstanding dysfunctions, particularly in training and command structures. Despite strict legal penalties under martial law, five to ten years in prison for unauthorized absence and up to twelve years for desertion, the phenomenon persists. Between February 2022 and September 2025, Ukraine’s prosecutor’s office opened over 235,000 cases for unauthorized absence and 53,000 for desertion. By comparison, the U.S. and U.K. militaries recorded roughly 150,000 similar cases combined throughout World War II.

The Ukrainian army, estimated at around 880,000 deployed troops, is struggling to replenish front-line units. Many soldiers have served continuously for years without rest or time with their families, while thousands of eligible men aged 25 to 60 have fled abroad, often illegally, further straining manpower. Fedorov announced an audit to improve the effectiveness of the armed forces while maintaining personnel levels, with a particular focus on strengthening drone brigades - a sector delivering disproportionate results despite severe staffing shortages. He noted that the 50 best drone units out of 400 carry out 70% of strikes on enemy targets, highlighting the untapped potential of remaining units.

The outlook for Kyiv remains difficult. The defense minister warned that military resources will decline, with the 2026 budget set at 300 billion Ukrainian hryvnias, roughly six billion euros, significantly lower than the previous year. This reduction raises questions about Ukraine’s ability to sustain operations amid persistent Russian offensives and ongoing personnel challenges.