Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba does not see any realistic prospect for an end to the war with Russia in 2026, although he believes a temporary ceasefire could still be achievable during that period. He made the assessment in an interview, stressing that a full resolution of the conflict remains out of reach.

Asked directly whether the war could end next year, Kuleba replied that a definitive conclusion was unlikely, while a ceasefire remained a possible, though uncertain, scenario. In his view, Russia currently lacks any real incentive to stop the fighting.

He explained that wars usually come to a halt only when all sides develop clear motivations, which can be either positive or negative. Positive motivation exists when a party believes it has achieved its objectives and sees no need to continue. Negative motivation emerges when external pressure or internal difficulties force a pause in order to regroup or reduce strain. According to Kuleba, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was the result of such a combination. In the case of Ukraine, however, these conditions are not present.

Kuleba argued that Moscow remains convinced it can reach its goals through military means, while Ukraine believes it can continue to resist. He added that US President Donald Trump has been trying to apply both pressure and incentives in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but without success so far. The reason, Kuleba said, is that both sides have alternative sources of support. Russia relies on China, while Ukraine depends on Europe. As long as Kyiv and European partners remain united, external pressure alone will not be enough to force a breakthrough.

Despite this, Kuleba noted that substantial progress has already been made and formally recorded within the Ukraine Europe US negotiation framework. He suggested that even if current talks fail, future negotiations would not restart from scratch. Instead, they would resume very close to a potential agreement, although the final stage would be the most difficult.

At the same time, he expressed skepticism that any ceasefire agreement could be reached by the end of winter. In his view, it would make little sense for Russia to intensify attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and economy during the cold months only to suddenly halt operations. He described such a move as inconsistent with Moscow’s current strategy.

According to Kuleba, the next active phase of negotiations is expected toward the end of February, when diplomatic efforts are likely to intensify again.