Bosnian Serb voters have chosen Sinisa Karan, an ally of banned leader Milorad Dodik, to fill the presidency in a snap election held on Sunday, preliminary results indicate. The vote was called to resolve months of political instability following Dodik’s removal from office in August for defying rulings by Christian Schmidt, the international overseer of Bosnia’s post-war peace framework.

The conflict in the 1990s left Bosnia divided into two semi-autonomous entities: the Serb-led Republika Srpska (RS) and a Bosniak-Croat federation, linked by weak central institutions. The election was seen as a key test for Dodik’s nationalist Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), which has governed the Serb entity for nearly 20 years.

With nearly 93 percent of votes counted, the electoral commission reported Karan leading with 50.9 percent, ahead of his main rival Branko Blanusa at 47.8 percent. Speaking at the SNSD headquarters in Banja Luka, Dodik declared, “Today's election was won by our candidate Sinisa Karan. That is unquestionable.”

Karan, 63, a former interior minister, is a trusted ally and Dodik’s personal choice. He will serve the remainder of the term until the general election in October 2026. “I see this personally as support for me as well, in almost impossible circumstances,” Dodik said. “They wanted to remove Dodik through an entirely unfair political process… and now they ended up with two Dodiks. They will be seeing that every day.”

Turnout was low at under 36 percent, compared to 53 percent in the 2022 election. About 1.2 million voters could choose from six candidates, but the contest quickly narrowed to Karan and Blanusa, a 56-year-old electrical engineering professor backed by the opposition Serb Democratic Party (SDS). Blanusa repeatedly accused Dodik and his party of corruption, claiming that their policies threaten the future of Republika Srpska.

The election followed heightened tensions between Dodik and Schmidt, which analysts warned could plunge the country into its worst political crisis since the 1992-1995 war. Dodik, 66, with close Kremlin ties, was banned from public office for six years for ignoring Schmidt’s decisions but accepted his removal in October. In response, the United States lifted sanctions on Dodik and several associates, including Karan, who had been sanctioned since January.

“The Serb people have now given a decisive answer: ‘No’ to any foreigner, ‘No’ to anyone who seeks to usurp the will of the Serb people,” Karan told supporters in Banja Luka. Pensioner Milan Golja said he voted for Karan to ensure Dodik’s policies continue. “This is a big Western-made farce… Dodik has the support of the people,” he added.

Observers noted that there is little ideological difference between Karan and Blanusa. Historian and diplomat Slobodan Soja described both as “unpopular, selfish and irresponsible,” but highlighted that Dodik’s influence remains dominant. “His power remains intact and will only grow over time, as he is simply all-powerful as long as he leads the party,” Soja said.

Some voters expressed hope that the election might ease political tensions. Dragoslav Milanovic, 66, told AFP, “The chaos here is not helping anyone.” The result signals the continued dominance of Dodik’s political network in Republika Srpska and a consolidation of his influence despite his formal removal from office.