Martin Vladimirov, director of the Geoeconomics Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy, said in an interview with the Bulgarian National Radio that the most beneficial outcome for Bulgaria would be for a strategic Western investor to acquire Lukoil’s assets. According to him, such a development would improve the management of Bulgaria’s oil sector and prevent politically connected companies from influencing key national decisions in the future.

Vladimirov noted that while it would be logical for Turkish Cengiz Holding or Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, both long-time partners of Lukoil, to seek to buy the company’s Bulgarian operations, the United States has clearly opposed such a deal and is unwilling to make concessions. He added that the special administrator now overseeing Lukoil will have the authority to negotiate with potential buyers, which opens the door to different scenarios.

Speaking at a recent conference organized by the Center for the Study of Democracy, Vladimirov warned that no democratic institutions can remain stable if Europe’s geopolitical and geoeconomic environment is eroded by external interference or direct attacks on its sovereignty. “The peace dividend that Europe once enjoyed no longer exists,” he said, stressing that the continent must develop genuine strategic autonomy to defend its democratic values. He cautioned that certain actors within EU member states are actively working to weaken those foundations.

He outlined three key challenges for Europe in this regard. The first, he said, is the modernization and renewal of defense capabilities, as the EU still cannot rely entirely on itself to counter external military threats. For too long, Europe has depended on the United States and the NATO umbrella, but, in his words, that sense of security is now gone. The second priority, Vladimirov continued, is strengthening economic security by becoming more self-sufficient in technology, energy, and raw materials. He noted that Europe trails behind in advanced technologies and remains heavily dependent on energy imports, which is a weakness Russia has exploited, and one that could soon be mirrored by growing dependence on China for critical resources.

The third crucial element, Vladimirov said, is the creation of what Brussels calls a “democratic shield.” This involves reinforcing media freedom, empowering civil society, and establishing structural safeguards to prevent external actors from undermining democratic institutions and public trust.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Vladimirov expressed the view that it will only end when the Kremlin finds itself too weakened to continue and is forced to negotiate peace. He noted that, for now, Moscow retains the ability to sustain the conflict without major suffering among its population, which allows it to prolong the war despite international pressure.

Source: BNR interview