Russia currently has the capacity to carry out a limited strike on NATO territory at any time, although whether it will do so depends largely on the stance of Western allies, German Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank has warned in an interview with Reuters.

Sollfrank, who leads Germany’s Joint Operations Command and is responsible for the country’s defense planning, explained that such an assault would likely be small, quick, and confined to a specific region near Russia’s borders. “If you look at Russia's current capabilities and combat power, Russia could kick off a small-scale attack against NATO territory as early as tomorrow,” he said. However, he stressed that Moscow remains heavily engaged in Ukraine and lacks the capacity for a larger offensive at the moment.

The general reiterated NATO’s broader concern that Russia could rebuild sufficient strength to launch a large-scale attack on the alliance’s 32 member states as early as 2029 if its rearmament efforts continue unchecked. Speaking from his base in northern Berlin, Sollfrank said that while Russia’s ground forces have suffered losses in Ukraine, its air force, nuclear capabilities, and missile arsenal remain largely intact. He noted that although the Black Sea Fleet has sustained damage, Russia’s other naval forces have not been significantly diminished.

Sollfrank said Moscow’s ability to rapidly mobilize and its ambition to expand its army to 1.5 million troops make a limited attack scenario plausible. He did not suggest that such an operation was imminent but said it could become a reality depending on Russia’s internal calculations. The decision, he added, would depend on three key factors: Russia’s military strength, its operational experience, and its leadership’s determination. “A Russian attack is in the realm of the possible. Whether it will happen or not depends to a large extent on our own behavior,” he said, pointing to NATO’s deterrence efforts as a crucial element in preventing escalation.

He also highlighted Moscow’s ongoing hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and drone incursions into NATO airspace, describing them as part of a “non-linear” warfare strategy aimed at weakening the alliance before any potential conventional confrontation. “The Russians call this non-linear warfare. It is warfare before resorting to conventional weapons. And they threaten to use nuclear weapons, which is warfare by intimidation,” Sollfrank said. He explained that such actions are designed to test NATO’s resolve, spread insecurity, and assess the alliance’s response.

His warning comes as the United States adjusts its military presence in Europe. Romania’s Ministry of Defence confirmed last week that Washington is reducing the number of its troops on the continent, although U.S. officials have emphasized that this is a redeployment, not a withdrawal.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has urged European countries to prepare for the long-term isolation of Russia even after the end of the war in Ukraine. Speaking to Estonian broadcaster ERR, Kristersson said Europe must remain vigilant and continue to strengthen its defense capabilities and competitiveness. “We have never had greater control over the Baltic Sea, and this irritates Russia. It is our sea,” he said, stressing that deterrence and limits on Russian submarine activity are essential for maintaining regional security.

Kristersson’s remarks echo similar statements from Estonian President Alar Karis, who has described Russian aggression as “another kind of war,” requiring Europe to adapt to new hybrid threats. The prime ministers of Norway and Finland have also identified Russia as the primary threat to Nordic security but reiterated that their nations are ready to respond collectively if provoked.