The European Commission is considering new measures to protect the European Union from potential “Trojan horse” members, countries that could join the bloc but later undermine democratic standards. Under the proposals, new members might be subject to a probationary period lasting several years and could even face expulsion if they fail to uphold the rule of law. The initiative reflects lessons drawn from Hungary, where democratic norms have been weakened under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, including easing sanctions on Russia and blocking military aid to Ukraine.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos emphasized the importance of preventing similar scenarios. She said the Commission is exploring mechanisms such as transitional safeguards, probationary periods, and stricter conditions in future accession treaties. These measures would ensure that progress made during negotiations is irreversible. Countries systematically violating EU principles could eventually lose rights or benefits, with expulsion being a potential last resort. Kos stressed that candidates who fully respect democratic norms would not be restricted and rejected claims that the rules would create a “two-tier” membership.

The EU continues to advance enlargement despite ongoing concerns. Montenegro leads in reforms, followed by Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina lagging behind. Montenegro has successfully closed four negotiation chapters and aims to complete accession by the end of 2026, provided reforms continue steadily. Albania has also made significant progress, targeting full negotiations completion by 2027, with judicial reforms and anti-corruption measures central to its efforts.

Ukraine and Moldova, despite Russia’s ongoing aggression, have advanced their accession processes. Ukraine completed the screening process and adopted roadmaps for judicial and democratic reforms, aiming to conclude negotiations by 2028. Moldova similarly finalized its screening process, implemented reforms, and aims to finish accession talks by early 2028, contingent on maintaining reform momentum and parliamentary support. Kos noted that the countries’ processes, often bundled together politically, could be handled separately to avoid unnecessary delays caused by objections from existing members such as Hungary.

Other candidate countries face serious challenges. Serbia’s accession is hindered by political polarization, protests, corruption, and erosion of fundamental rights, slowing reforms. North Macedonia must strengthen judicial independence, fight corruption, and implement constitutional reforms for minority protections. Bosnia and Herzegovina suffers from political instability in Republika Srpska, limited reforms, and unfinished judicial laws, delaying accession negotiations.

Turkey remains a candidate and strategic partner, but democratic backsliding, legal actions against opposition figures, and stalled negotiations over Cyprus hinder progress. Georgia’s EU accession process is effectively on hold due to rapid democratic decline, restricted civic freedoms, and legal measures undermining fundamental rights. Comprehensive reforms, cross-party cooperation, and civic engagement are required for both countries to align with EU standards.

The European Commission’s broader strategy includes gradual integration of candidate countries into EU programs, such as the proposed “democracy shield,” to mitigate risks to the union and prevent backsliding while supporting countries’ reform efforts. Kos underscored that the aim is to secure EU standards at the front door, preventing Russian influence from entering through any back channels.