Dr. Maria Trifonova, lecturer at the Faculty of Economics at Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski,” stated that Bulgaria’s solar energy capacity is set to exceed 4 GW in 2025, roughly equivalent to the output of four nuclear reactors. She emphasized that solar power presents an opportunity for citizens to participate directly in the country’s energy transition through personal investments - a path Bulgaria has largely not pursued.

Trifonova noted that the expansion of solar installations in Bulgaria accelerated following the energy crisis. Initially, industrial companies and large businesses installed solar panels to offset soaring electricity costs. More recently, commercial projects combining solar power with battery storage have emerged, driven entirely by market dynamics rather than government incentives.

She acknowledged one challenge of variable renewable energy sources such as solar and wind: their intermittent production. Solar energy peaks during daylight hours and is nonexistent at night, while wind output is less predictable but somewhat foreseeable. As these sources gain a larger share in the energy system, they require careful management and additional flexibility, including storage solutions, cross-border interconnections, and complementary renewable capacities. According to Trifonova, relying solely on a constant energy supply from conventional sources is no longer sufficient.

The National Energy and Climate Plan outlines Bulgaria’s ambition to gradually replace polluting energy sources, including coal, with renewables. Trifonova highlighted that the economic rationale for renewable investments is clear, thanks to falling equipment costs. Photovoltaic panel prices have dropped more than tenfold over the last two decades, while the cost of wind turbines has decreased roughly four- to fivefold. In contrast, large-scale baseload projects such as thermal and nuclear power plants are becoming increasingly expensive and uncertain, altering the market logic and complicating investment decisions in traditional energy sources.

The growing share of renewables in Bulgaria’s energy mix has also reduced the cost of carbon allowances, encouraging private investment. Today, private investors increasingly drive the expansion of solar and wind energy, a departure from the incentive-dependent models of 2012–2015.

Comparing Bulgaria with Greece, Trifonova noted that Athens has a more structured and ambitious renewable energy strategy, closing coal-fired plants for economic reasons and encouraging citizen investments in solar production. In Bulgaria, she said, the transition is largely business-driven, with industrial and commercial actors leading, while policy planning and citizen involvement lag behind. This lack of planning can contribute to imbalances in the energy system despite a growing “greening” of the mix.

Trifonova also highlighted social and environmental concerns surrounding renewable energy. Citizens are increasingly attentive to the visibility of solar installations and their ecological and land-use implications. One persistent misconception is that solar panels are installed on prime agricultural land; in reality, most projects use non-arable land, and even meeting all of Bulgaria’s energy needs would require only about 5% of agricultural land.

Finally, she stressed the missed opportunity to involve citizens in energy generation. “Solar energy allows people to actively participate in the transition with their own investments. We did not do this in Bulgaria, which partly explains the lower social acceptance of this technology,” Trifonova concluded.

Source: BGNES