Households across the eurozone are now spending roughly a third more on food than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic, a rise that far exceeds increases in the prices of other goods. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), this surge is largely driven by higher labor costs and rising global commodity prices, factors that have made the overall consumer basket significantly more expensive. Despite headline inflation having fallen sharply - from a high of 10.6% in October 2022 to 2.0% recently - many households still feel the pinch when shopping for groceries. One in three Europeans reports concern over whether they can afford the food they want, reflecting both real price pressures and persistent perceptions of reduced purchasing power.

Food inflation in the eurozone began accelerating slightly later than overall inflation after the pandemic, but its peak was higher and its normalization slower. In August 2025, the most recent data show food prices rising at 3.2%, the highest rate among the four categories measured in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Since the introduction of the euro in 1999, food prices have traditionally risen slightly faster than other goods, but ECB experts note that the gap between food prices and general inflation since 2022 has been both clear and persistent.

Looking at longer-term trends, food prices in August 2025 were 34% higher than in the same month of 2019, compared with a 23% rise for overall consumer prices. This divergence is a central focus for the ECB in its monetary policy decisions, as food prices strongly influence public perception and expectations of inflation, which are key to maintaining price stability in the eurozone.

Several factors explain the renewed acceleration of food inflation. Rising labor costs and global commodity prices are central, with climate-related disruptions also playing a role. Prolonged droughts in southern Spain during 2022 and 2023 caused sharp spikes in olive oil prices, while adverse weather in exporting countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire contributed to surges in coffee and cocoa prices. These trends have affected a wide range of basic food products since the end of 2019. For example, beef, chicken, and pork prices have risen over 30%, milk by roughly 40%, and butter by around 50%. Prices for coffee and olive oil have increased by more than 50%, with cocoa and chocolate jumping approximately 60%, and bread prices up by about 31%.

The impact of rising food prices varies across eurozone countries. Since the end of 2019, Cyprus has seen a 20% rise, Italy 28%, Germany 37%, Greece around 30%, and Croatia 47%. The Baltic countries have experienced the sharpest increases, with some exceeding 50%. These disparities reflect differences in exposure to energy and commodity shocks, labor cost dynamics, and national policy responses. In part, the escalation of energy and fertilizer costs following Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to significant price spikes in 2021–2023, particularly in the Baltic region.

Rising food prices disproportionately affect lower-income households, which spend a larger share of their income on groceries. Although wage growth has helped offset some of the losses in real income, many consumers still feel financially strained, with the cost of daily essentials weighing heavily on budgets. In response to overall inflation dynamics and the particular sensitivity of food prices, the ECB maintained its key interest rate at 2% earlier this month, balancing efforts to support economic recovery while managing inflation expectations.