Bulgaria is now ranked among the top five EU countries most at risk from forest fires, with critical infrastructure particularly vulnerable, according to a new report from climate risk analysis firm XDI. The assessment warns of a sharply increasing threat in the coming decades, with southern regions of the country facing the greatest exposure.

The report, which evaluates the vulnerability of European infrastructure to fire-related damage, places Bulgaria fifth in the “Aggregate Risk of Damage” category for 2025. The Kardzhali region is highlighted as the most at risk, facing the highest potential for destruction from forest fires. By 2050, Bulgaria is projected to retain its fifth-place ranking, but the number of high-risk areas expands, adding the Smolyan and Burgas regions alongside Kardzhali. This trend indicates a spreading threat affecting larger portions of the country.

Historical data underscores the severity of the situation. Between 1990 and 2025, the risk of infrastructure damage in Bulgaria due to forest fires has surged by 151%. XDI analysts warn that if urgent action is not taken and carbon emissions remain high, the risk is expected to climb another 131% between 2025 and 2050. The findings highlight the increasing impact of climate change, which is driving more frequent and intense fires across the country.

XDI’s methodology goes beyond traditional models, which often rely solely on historical events. Their approach integrates data at the individual property level and considers critical factors such as forest cover, fuel availability, weather patterns, and local fire department capacity. This granular analysis is particularly important for Bulgaria, as shifting climate conditions make past incidents a poor predictor of future risks.

The report stresses the urgent need for investments in resilience and adaptation measures. It also calls for careful planning of future infrastructure and residential developments to avoid areas with the highest fire risk. According to XDI, regions identified as most vulnerable will require immediate protective measures to safeguard both the population and critical infrastructure, aiming to prevent catastrophic losses in the decades ahead.