The European Union is increasingly concerned that a significant portion of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) entering Bulgaria via Turkey may in fact originate from Russia, despite efforts to reduce dependency on Russian energy.

According to energy analyst Aura Sabadus of the consultancy firm ICIS, there is a high likelihood that most of the LNG imported by the Turkish state-owned company Botas and later delivered to Bulgaria is of Russian origin. The suspicion is particularly serious due to the lower price of Russian gas, which continues to make it attractive on the market.

The deliveries are routed through the Strandja-Malkochlar interconnection point on the Bulgarian-Turkish border, with a similar risk identified at the Kipi interconnector between Turkey and Greece. Both are key entry points into the EU for natural gas that has passed through Turkey.

Under a contract signed in 2023, Bulgargaz is allowed to reserve capacity at Turkish LNG terminals. Botas is responsible for handling the unloading of the gas and delivering it to the Bulgarian side at the EU border. However, Sabadus warns that there is no way to guarantee that the gas returned to Bulgaria is the same as the one initially imported to Turkey. This opens the door for possible mixing with Russian gas, undermining EU sanctions policy.

Figures from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) show that in 2023, a total of 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas was imported into the EU via Strandzha-Malkoclar and Kipoi. That number could grow to 5.4 billion cubic meters annually, roughly one-fifth of all Russian gas delivered by pipeline last year. Given these volumes, Sabadus argues that the two interconnectors should be flagged as high-risk in the European Commission’s upcoming legislation aimed at phasing out Russian gas by 2027.

Yet, political resistance is complicating matters. The Turkish Foreign Ministry made it clear to Politico that Ankara opposes any unilateral sanctions unless backed by the United Nations Security Council. In a statement, Turkey warned that such measures pose risks to global energy markets, destabilizing economies and creating long-term uncertainty for energy consumers.

This lack of alignment is seen as a major obstacle within the European Parliament, where Finnish Green MEP Ville Niinistö, the lead negotiator on the proposed ban, stressed that Turkey’s refusal to cooperate could significantly weaken the effectiveness of the EU’s plan. Without access to reliable data from Turkey, European institutions have limited insight into the provenance of gas transiting through the southeast.

Although Bulgargaz insists that it verifies the source of the imported gas and retains all necessary documentation for shipments through Turkey, energy experts say that confirming the true origin is practically unfeasible. The contracts are confidential, and the gas itself is often handled by multiple intermediaries before reaching Bulgaria, making transparency extremely difficult.

Turkey, for its part, maintains that it is not involved in circumventing EU restrictions and that it regularly publishes statistics about its gas imports. However, the lack of EU oversight over Turkish authorities remains a fundamental issue in enforcing compliance.