Bulgaria’s property market is poised for a sharp price increase in 2025, followed by a more moderate rise after the adoption of the euro, according to Alexander Bochev, Chairman of the National Real Estate Association (NSNI).

He points to Croatia as a precedent, which joined the Eurozone in 2023. In the five years leading up to euro adoption, property prices in Croatia rose by 6–10% annually. In the year just before adopting the euro, prices spiked by 17%, but returned to 6–10% annual growth afterward.

A similar pattern is expected in Bulgaria. In recent years, property prices in the country have increased by 9–15% annually. For 2025, an 18% price hike is forecast—matching the year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025. From 2026–2027, growth is expected to stabilize around 10% per year, Bochev added.

In 2024, the property market was driven by strong demand, noted Anton Andonov, CEO of ERA Real Estate. Around 95,000 residential transactions were completed—40% above the pre-COVID average—with total deal volume surpassing BGN 12 billion.

Andonov outlined four key factors fueling the surge:

1. Rising household incomes outpacing inflation and property prices

2. Historically low mortgage interest rates (2.3%–2.5%) driven by competition among banks

3. Persistently high inflation, prompting people to invest in real estate

4. Speculation around euro adoption, creating expectations of further price increases

In 2025, housing prices are expected to continue climbing due to low interest rates, rising incomes, and public anticipation of higher property values before euro adoption. According to Andonov, mortgage rates are unlikely to change this year, but once Bulgaria joins the Eurozone, rates will gradually align with those in other member states. Overall, eurozone trends point to decreasing interest rates.

Andonov called 2025 the peak of the real estate cycle over the past four years. Following euro adoption, likely in early 2026, the market is expected to settle, with annual transactions normalizing at around 80,000 sales.

By the end of 2025, home prices are projected to grow by at least another 10%. After euro adoption, the effect on property prices is expected to diminish, with demand returning to core motivations—like improving living conditions. In 2026, real price growth (adjusted for inflation) is expected to slow to around 6%, which is considered healthy and sustainable.

Infographic Outline:

Bulgaria's Real Estate Outlook – 2025 and Beyond

2025 Forecast:

• ???? 18% property price increase

• ???? Highest annual spike in past 4 years

2024 Market Snapshot:

• 95,000 property deals

• BGN 12+ billion in transaction volume

• 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels

Top Drivers of Market Growth:

• Rising incomes outpacing inflation

• Low mortgage interest rates (2.3%–2.5%)

• High inflation pushing people toward real estate

• Anticipation of euro adoption

Post-Eurozone Expectations (2026–2027):

• Price growth normalizes to 6–10% annually

• Sales volume expected at ~80,000 transactions/year

• Gradual alignment of mortgage rates with eurozone levels

2026 Price Increase (Real Terms):

• ≈ 6% after adjusting for inflation

• Return to demand based on lifestyle, not speculation