Two leading global credit rating agencies, Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings, have raised Bulgaria’s long-term foreign currency credit rating to ‘BBB+’ with a stable outlook, marking the highest level in the medium investment-grade tier.

The primary factor driving the upgrade is the European Council's formal decision approving Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone from January 1, 2026. The agencies consider this a major structural shift that significantly enhances Bulgaria’s economic and financial profile.

In its rationale, S&P Global Ratings points out that eurozone accession will considerably reduce Bulgaria’s currency risk while integrating the country more deeply into the EU’s capital markets. The agency highlights that Bulgaria will benefit from the European Central Bank’s robust monetary policy, which it sees as a stabilizing factor for the country’s financial system. S&P also views Bulgaria’s EU membership and imminent entry into the euro area as key enablers for implementing strategic reforms.

According to S&P’s outlook, Bulgaria’s short-term economic trajectory remains steady. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8% through 2028. The forecast attributes the momentum primarily to private consumption, which is expected to remain strong due to sustained real wage increases supported by a tight labor market.

Fitch Ratings likewise regards eurozone accession as a decisive positive factor for the rating. In its analysis, Fitch emphasizes that joining the monetary union will grant Bulgaria’s government debt reserve currency status, improve the credibility of the monetary policy framework, and eliminate exchange rate volatility. This would, in turn, reduce transaction costs for businesses and households while broadening the country’s access to international capital. The Bulgarian banking sector would also benefit by gaining access to the ECB’s liquidity mechanisms, the finance ministry noted.

Fitch’s economic projections align with the broader trend. The agency expects Bulgaria’s economy to expand by 2.8% in 2025, matching its estimate for 2024. This stable outlook is based on the assumption that risks related to global trade will be counterbalanced by a more stable domestic political environment. Strong nominal wage growth, combined with increased consumer activity in the lead-up to euro adoption, is forecast to fuel household spending. For 2026, Fitch projects real GDP growth at 2.5%, with additional growth potential tied to euro integration.