A hot and dry summer is on the horizon in Bulgaria, with weather experts warning that July and August are unlikely to offset the severe drought experienced in June. According to the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, precipitation levels remain far below average across much of the country, raising concerns about an elevated risk of wildfires.

June 2025 marked one of the driest months in a century, with some areas in Southeastern Bulgaria receiving no rainfall at all. Rainfall totals throughout the nation were generally well under the long-term averages, except near the mountainous regions of Rila and Pirin where conditions remained closer to normal. Despite the dryness, temperatures in June were warmer than usual and even surpassed those recorded in June 2023, although they did not exceed the highs seen in June 2024.

Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to climb further at the start of July, with daytime highs predicted to rise above 35°C and nighttime lows hovering around 20°C, resulting in persistently warm nights. This pattern is supported by stable atmospheric conditions dominated by a thermal ridge and high pressure system. However, a shift is anticipated by midweek, when cooler air is expected to arrive, bringing a drop in daytime temperatures by 7 to 8 degrees Celsius and an increase in cloud cover. Rainfall remains unlikely despite the cloudiness, though the possibility of some localized showers toward the end of the week cannot be ruled out.

The ongoing drought and heat significantly increase the fire risk, particularly in Northwestern Bulgaria, Dobrudzha, and Southeastern regions. While the current fire hazard levels are not expected to reach extreme, officials will closely monitor conditions, especially during episodes of strong winds or dry thunderstorms, which could rapidly worsen the situation.

Meanwhile, sea temperatures along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast are comfortably warm, ranging from 24 to 26°C, ideal for swimming. In contrast, the western and central Mediterranean Sea is experiencing unusually high water temperatures, reaching up to 30°C, which could contribute to severe storms when cooler air masses move in.

Agricultural sectors and water supply systems face challenges as the forecast suggests that the rest of summer will continue to see below-average rainfall, exacerbating drought stress. While localized thunderstorms and hail remain possible, they are difficult to predict more than a few hours in advance and tend to affect limited areas.

Authorities advise the public to stay informed through regional weather updates, exercise caution to prevent fires, and be particularly careful when venturing into mountainous terrain during this dry, hot period.