New evidence has emerged suggesting that Russian forces were responsible for the missile strike on Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, which crashed on December 25, 2024, killing 38 people and injuring 29 others. An Azerbaijani news outlet, Minval, published an anonymous letter accompanied by audio recordings and technical details that implicate the Russian military in the incident.

According to Minval, the letter includes a statement allegedly signed by Captain Dmitry Sergeyevich Paladichuk, a Russian air defence officer who reportedly acted under orders from Russia’s Ministry of Defence when authorizing the missile launch. The letter details how Captain Paladichuk was stationed near Grozny between December 24 and 25, and was instructed to enter full combat readiness at 05:40 on the day of the crash. It notes that communication was hindered by poor mobile reception and malfunctioning wired lines, making coordination reliant on unstable mobile connections.

The letter describes how at 08:11, radar detected a potential target, and under phone orders to destroy it, two missiles were fired despite heavy fog preventing optical confirmation. The first missile reportedly missed, but the second detonated close enough to the aircraft to cause fatal shrapnel damage.

Minval also reviewed three voice messages purportedly corroborating the letter’s claims. These recordings feature Russian voices giving operational commands, including missile firing sequences and a report that the first missile missed, followed by an order to launch another.

On the day of the crash, Azerbaijani government sources told Euronews that a Russian surface-to-air missile was launched at Flight 8243 while drone activity was ongoing above Grozny. Shrapnel from the explosion struck passengers and crew, disabling the plane. Despite pilots’ emergency landing requests, Russian authorities refused permission to land at any domestic airports and directed the aircraft to fly across the Caspian Sea toward Aktau, Kazakhstan. The plane crashed during the attempted emergency landing, resulting in casualties.

Subsequent investigations pointed to a missile from a Russian Pantsir-S1 system as the cause of the downing.

In the aftermath, Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the incident as a “tragic accident” but stopped short of accepting responsibility. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev publicly declared Russia’s culpability, stating that although the attack may not have been intentional, it was carried out by Russian forces. He also outlined three demands: an official apology, admission of guilt, and punishment for those responsible, along with compensation for victims and the Azerbaijani state. Putin’s apology on December 28 fulfilled the first demand, though Moscow has yet to acknowledge full responsibility.

The Kremlin defended the missile activity near Grozny as defensive measures against Ukrainian drone attacks. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers identified the explosion’s location as the Naursky District in Chechnya, where several Russian air defence units were stationed.

This fresh evidence comes amid escalating tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan, as judicial confrontations intensify and bilateral relations worsen following the tragedy.