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The upcoming rise in electricity prices starting in July is expected to influence inflation in Bulgaria, said Assoc. Prof. Dr. Atanas Atanasov, chairman of the National Statistical Institute (NSI), in an interview with BTA marking Bulgarian Statistics Day.
He emphasized that the overall impact on inflation will also depend on other factors such as oil prices, transport expenses, and consumer behavior. The volatile situation in the Middle East adds further uncertainty, as a potential surge in crude oil prices could ripple through the costs of many goods and services.
Atanasov described inflation as a dynamic and hard-to-predict measure, especially given the international instability and Bulgaria’s upcoming entry into the eurozone. He noted that making precise inflation forecasts for the remainder of the year is challenging due to multiple variables - energy costs, fuel prices, geopolitical developments, and domestic market trends.
One significant risk he pointed out is the potential for price speculation ahead of Bulgaria’s eurozone accession scheduled for January 2026.
Looking forward, the NSI plans to begin releasing monthly flash inflation reports after Bulgaria adopts the euro. These preliminary inflation estimates will follow eurozone standards and use the same consumer basket and methodology as other member states, ensuring consistency and comparability.
On the topic of inflation variation by region, Atanasov said that before the year ends, agreements with major retail chains are expected to be finalized to gather the data needed for calculating regional inflation indices.
Addressing nostalgic comparisons to the 1990s economic conditions, Atanasov highlighted that Bulgaria’s economy is now considerably stronger. Adjusted for inflation, the real gross domestic product (GDP) today is nearly double the average annual GDP of the transition period.
He also pointed out improvements in household spending patterns, noting that the share of income spent on food has decreased - from 30% in 2020 to 28.7% in 2023 - meaning families have more disposable income available for other expenses and leisure.
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