The number of nuclear weapons in the world may begin to grow again, ending a decades-long period of decline, according to the latest annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The findings highlight a shift in direction: instead of reducing stockpiles, most nuclear-armed countries are now actively modernizing and expanding their arsenals.

SIPRI observes that almost all nine states with nuclear capabilities are either upgrading existing weapons, producing new ones, or both. Analyst Hans M. Kristensen from the institute warns that the global pattern of disarmament, which followed the end of the Cold War, is now clearly fading. In its place, a new era is emerging - marked by the growth of nuclear arsenals, heightened rhetoric about their potential use, and a steady erosion of arms control agreements that once aimed to curb such developments.

The long-standing reductions in warhead numbers were driven largely by the dismantling of outdated stockpiles, especially by the United States and Russia. But this process has slowed significantly. At the same time, the pace at which new nuclear weapons are being deployed is accelerating, SIPRI points out. The two largest nuclear powers continue to dominate the global picture, holding around 90% of the world’s total nuclear weapons. Both Washington and Moscow are pursuing extensive modernization strategies that could further diversify and increase their capabilities.

As of this year, SIPRI estimates that the nine nuclear-armed countries - namely the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel - collectively possess 12,241 nuclear warheads. This is slightly down from the 12,405 recorded in the previous year. However, the numbers currently deployed for possible use are far lower: 3,912 warheads in total. Of these, 1,770 are deployed by the United States, 1,718 by Russia, 280 by France, 120 by the United Kingdom, and 24 by China.