Bulgaria and the Euro: What Happens to National Monetary Sovereignty?
One of the most debated topics around Bulgaria’s upcoming transition from the lev to the euro is whether the country is giving up its sovereignty
Bulgaria’s economy posted a 3.1% year-on-year growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025, and a 0.6% increase compared to the final quarter of 2024, according to seasonally adjusted preliminary data released by the National Statistical Institute (NSI).
GDP at Current Prices
In absolute terms, the GDP for the January–March period stood at 45.6 billion leva, with the gross value added (GVA) for the economy’s sectors reaching 39.6 billion leva. On a per capita basis, GDP was 7,093 leva. Using the quarterly average exchange rate of 1.8592 leva per U.S. dollar, GDP translated to .5 billion, or ,815 per person. In euros, this equals €23.3 billion total, or €3,626 per capita.
The structure of GVA by sector showed that agriculture maintained a 1.3% share - unchanged from the same period a year ago. Industry’s share dropped to 26.3%, down by one percentage point year-on-year. Meanwhile, the services sector increased its contribution by one point, reaching 72.4% of the total added value.
Final consumption remained the largest driver of GDP, accounting for 74.7% of total output. Investments—measured as gross fixed capital formation—comprised 14.9%. The balance of foreign trade in goods and services was negative for the quarter.
Quarter-on-Quarter Developments
Compared to the last quarter of 2024, GDP rose by 0.6%, while GVA grew 0.5%. Consumption saw a quarterly boost of 2.3%. However, exports declined by 2.4%, and imports edged up by 0.3%, according to seasonally adjusted figures.
Year-on-Year Performance
On an annual basis, GVA increased by 2.6%, backed by growth across a range of sectors. Construction registered the strongest performance with a 7.6% rise. The ICT and creative industries expanded by 4.7%, financial and insurance services grew 4.6%, and trade, transport, tourism, and related services rose by 3.9%. Public services—including administration, education, and healthcare—advanced by 3.7%, while professional and administrative services were up by 2.2%. Other sectors like culture, entertainment, and household services increased by 1.3%, followed by real estate at 0.8%, and agriculture with a modest 0.2%.
The only sector to post a contraction was the group encompassing extractive industries, manufacturing, utilities, and waste management, which shrank by 3.1%.
From the perspective of GDP components, final consumption increased 7.2% and capital formation jumped 9.0% compared to Q1 2024. At the same time, exports of goods and services declined 3.2%, while imports rose 4.6%.
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