Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki has narrowly won Poland’s presidential runoff, edging out centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski with 50.89 percent of the vote to Trzaskowski’s 49.11 percent, according to official results from the electoral commission. The victory marked a sharp turnaround from an initial exit poll that showed Trzaskowski ahead, with 50.3 percent against Nawrocki’s 49.7 percent, in a race that saw turnout reach 71.6 percent.

Despite the confusion caused by the exit polls, Nawrocki declared victory as soon as voting ended, telling his supporters, “We will win tonight.” His campaign received backing from the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, signaling Nawrocki’s intent to steer Poland in a more populist, nationalist direction.

Nawrocki’s victory is a serious setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government. The previous president, Andrzej Duda, who was also aligned with PiS, had already blocked several of Tusk’s initiatives, and Nawrocki is expected to do the same. Nawrocki’s own remarks after the polls closed hinted at the battles to come: “We will save Poland, we will not allow the power of Donald Tusk to be complete,” he said.

Political analyst Joanna Sawicka from Polityka Insight believes the election result signals more than just a new presidency - it points to a growing conflict between the president and Tusk’s government. Given the president’s power to veto laws or send them to the constitutional tribunal, Nawrocki will be a formidable obstacle. Tusk’s coalition lacks the parliamentary votes to override these vetoes, limiting the prime minister’s room to maneuver. Sawicka suggested that the opposition, now led by Nawrocki, might also push for early parliamentary elections, though she noted it’s unclear if that strategy could succeed. If not, Poland would face its next parliamentary elections in 2027.

Nawrocki’s past controversies - including allegations of facilitating prostitution at a luxury hotel while working as a security guard, participating in violent football hooliganism, and questions over how he acquired an apartment from a pensioner - did little to shake his conservative support. Many voters were alarmed by Trzaskowski’s progressive record as mayor of Warsaw, particularly his support for LGBTQ+ rights, which clashed with Poland’s powerful Roman Catholic hierarchy.

Throughout the campaign, Nawrocki promised to defend what he called a “normal” Poland, voicing opposition to European federalism, climate policy initiatives, and any expansion of LGBTQ+ or abortion rights. He also vowed to block Ukraine’s NATO membership bid. His campaign language strongly resonated with voters in smaller towns and rural areas, reflecting the deep political divides within Poland: city liberals versus rural conservatives, EU supporters versus nationalist traditionalists, and progressive values against a strong Catholic identity.

This rift is not new. In 2020, President Duda, also of PiS, defeated Trzaskowski by a similar margin of 51 to 49 percent.

For Donald Tusk, Nawrocki’s victory is an early warning sign. Even if Tusk did not formally endorse Trzaskowski’s bid, many viewed the presidential runoff as a referendum on the Tusk government itself. Sunday night’s wafer-thin margin has already emboldened PiS figures, like Przemysław Czarnek, to call for fresh elections and an end to Tusk’s administration.

The Polish president’s ceremonial role does not overshadow the fact that he can veto laws, including the national budget—a tool that could even force early elections. Bartosz Rydliński from Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University pointed out that many reforms had already stalled not because of presidential vetoes, but simply because there was no governing majority. Now, Nawrocki’s presidency ensures that any future government action will face even more resistance.

For PiS, Nawrocki’s win is a chance to regroup. The party, ousted by Tusk in 2023 after eight years in power, sees in him a potential path back to influence. Polls suggest that a coalition between PiS and the far-right Confederation party led by Sławomir Mentzen could achieve a parliamentary majority if they joined forces. In fact, exit poll data from Sunday’s vote showed that Nawrocki took more than 90 percent of Mentzen’s first-round supporters. However, for now, Confederation leaders insist they won’t team up with PiS—Mentzen didn’t endorse Nawrocki, arguing it wasn’t strategic to do so at this point.

Nawrocki’s presidency is also set to complicate Poland’s relationship with the European Union. While the EU may continue working with Tusk’s pro-European government, Nawrocki’s stance on EU federalism and green policy suggests he could be a thorn in Brussels’ side. Nawrocki also repeatedly echoed Washington’s skepticism toward Ukraine and promised to block its NATO bid, aligning himself with Trump’s more isolationist approach and Poland’s own anti-Ukrainian sentiment.

His first major international test comes soon: the NATO summit in The Hague in mid-June. There, Nawrocki will need to show that he has the ear of Washington - a connection that political scientist Rydliński said was already active, especially given the Republican majority in Congress. For Nawrocki, the election may be over, but the battle to define Poland’s future - at home and abroad - is just getting started.