Apricot harvests in Bulgaria face growing risks as winters become milder and more erratic, resulting in fewer sufficiently cold days crucial for the fruit’s proper development. This concern was highlighted by Nadezhda Shopova, assistant professor in the Climate section at the Institute for Climate, Atmosphere and Water Research (IICAW) at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, in an article for Klimateka.

Projections show that winters will continue to warm and grow less predictable, yet the threat of damaging cold snaps remains. Warmer temperatures in January and February prompt an earlier arrival of spring, which paradoxically delays the development of fruit trees, leaving them more exposed to damaging spring frosts. Weather extremes are becoming more pronounced, setting the stage for unstable apricot yields in the years ahead.

In Bulgaria’s most suitable apricot-growing regions, the harvest over a decade typically includes three very good, four average, and one poor season. During years of poor harvest, the country becomes reliant on imports, which pushes prices upward.

This cycle of instability poses a significant challenge for producers, discouraging investment in young orchards, increasing dependency on foreign supply, and inevitably leading to higher market prices for apricots.