After Bulgaria adopts the euro, the highest risk of speculative price increases will likely come from mobile operators and electricity distribution companies, not from the food sector. This warning comes from Simeon Dyankov, Chairman of the Fiscal Council and former finance minister, who spoke to bTV. According to him, public concerns over potential food price hikes are understandable, but in reality, the food sector is far more competitive, making coordination for speculative pricing much harder. In contrast, Dyankov notes, the mobile and energy markets are dominated by only three players each - giving them a greater ability to align and act in unison.

Dyankov emphasized that any price speculation is the responsibility of national regulators, not a direct consequence of eurozone accession. But he expressed doubt that the regulatory bodies will step in effectively, given their past track record. “They’ve never really managed to control this sort of behavior before,” he added.

Regarding the current progress toward joining the eurozone, Dyankov explained that Bulgaria has received a positive report - an important first step. Next, a meeting of EU finance ministers is scheduled for the end of June, and historically, this body has never contradicted the findings of such reports. However, the more politically sensitive hurdle will come in early July, during the European Council meeting. Here, any one of the 20 current eurozone leaders can raise objections, potentially halting the process.

Although Dyankov said he doesn’t expect this scenario, he did mention Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico as a possible outlier. “It only takes one dissenting vote,” Dyankov noted. “Fico has recently shown a willingness to go against consensus on various matters.”

The contents of the reports themselves remain largely unknown. Dyankov admitted he hasn't seen them and doubts that anyone outside Brussels has, since the documents are usually written up to the last moment. What is known is that the draft follows a strict model that examines pre-set economic criteria - and on those, Dyankov said Bulgaria is in compliance. However, what remains to be seen is whether this compliance is considered sustainable over time, which the report will clarify.

He also criticized Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev for commenting on the eurozone topic publicly, suggesting that such statements could do more harm than good. According to Dyankov, this is not the time for individual institutions to make pronouncements. Instead, if the report is favorable, it should be accepted as such by the Council of Ministers without additional noise. In his view, the Bulgarian National Bank has not handled this moment well.

On the subject of the proposed referendum on euro adoption - an idea floated by President Rumen Radev but blocked in parliament - Dyankov described it as a clever tactical move. Even if unsuccessful, it allows the president to later claim he attempted to protect public interests. Dyankov believes the real issue is the lack of clear information provided to citizens by both the Ministry of Finance and the Bulgarian National Bank, particularly around inflation and income stability. In fact, he said that in the last five countries to adopt the euro, public opinion studies showed widespread confusion about the impact on personal finances. He even pointed out that, contrary to popular belief, euro adoption is more often followed by deflation than inflation.

Dyankov stated that the topic may be dormant for now, but it is likely to resurface after Bulgaria officially joins the eurozone. He believes the government acted correctly in urging parliament not to advance the referendum proposal at this stage.

He also touched on the recent public transport strike in Sofia, calling the government’s decision to grant 15 million leva for wage increases a populist error. “It was a mistake. Mayor Terziev comes out looking good, but now everyone will want a raise,” he warned. Dyankov described it as an example of the fiscal disarray in Bulgaria, where budgetary decisions are taken without the involvement of either the Ministry of Finance or the Budget Committee.

In this case, he argued, it was former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov who made the call - effectively turning an MP into a de facto finance minister. “This sets a bad precedent,” Dyankov said, particularly with the eurozone convergence report on the horizon. He doubts the 15 million leva will be enough to sustain the salary bump until year-end and predicts a likely increase in ticket prices as a result.