Poland’s presidential race is heading to a runoff on June 1st, as liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative Karol Nawrocki emerged as the top contenders in the first round of voting. Trzaskowski, currently serving as the mayor of Warsaw and a prominent ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, secured 31.2% of the vote. Nawrocki, a conservative historian endorsed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, followed closely with 29.7%, according to an Ipsos exit poll.

Trzaskowski, known for his pro-European stance, has pledged to tackle abortion laws and reform the judiciary, aligning his campaign with Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO) party. Speaking to supporters in Sandomierz, he vowed to dismantle the current restrictive abortion law, promising, "On the first day after victory, I will start working very hard and I guarantee you a bill that will repeal this medieval law against abortion." He also emphasized his commitment to judicial reforms, asserting that Polish courts "will work faster and we will have certainty about judicial decisions."

Despite leading in the polls ahead of the vote, Trzaskowski’s final tally fell short of expectations, which had predicted a more decisive margin over Nawrocki. Now, he faces the task of consolidating centrist and center-left support, including from smaller coalition parties such as the Left and the conservative Third Way.

Karol Nawrocki, who was relatively unknown on the national stage before PiS backed his campaign, has capitalized on his party’s strong nationalist messaging and opposition to Tusk. Addressing his supporters in Gdansk, he warned against Tusk’s influence, claiming that the liberal coalition is seeking "total power in Poland." Nawrocki called on voters who supported far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, who collectively garnered more than 21% of the vote, to rally behind him in the runoff to prevent Tusk’s party from consolidating control.

Nawrocki’s campaign has also leveraged anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, a tactic that has resonated with parts of the electorate, particularly in rural and conservative areas. He has positioned himself as a defender of traditional values and a counterbalance to the pro-European and liberal policies championed by Trzaskowski.

While the presidency in Poland is largely ceremonial, the office holds significant veto power. With Tusk’s coalition lacking a parliamentary majority capable of overriding a presidential veto, the outcome of the June 1st runoff will play a critical role in determining the government’s ability to implement its reform agenda. Both candidates are now seeking to mobilize support from the electorate ahead of the decisive vote.