The cost of essential foods in Bulgaria has risen by nearly 11% over the past year, as reported by the Commission on Commodity Exchanges and Markets. The commission, which monitors the wholesale prices of 30 staple food products, found that items that cost 91 leva per unit last year are now priced at 101 leva, according to Vladimir Ivanov, chairman of the Commission, speaking to the Bulgarian National Radio.

While the National Statistical Institute (NSI) reported an overall annual inflation rate of 4% for March, the increase in the cost of basic foods has been two to three times higher. Dairy products have seen the most significant price hikes, with yogurt and fresh milk rising by approximately 20% and cheese and yellow cheese by around 10%. Flour prices jumped by 17%, a consequence of the VAT refund implemented at the start of the year.

In contrast, the meat market remains stable for both pork and chicken, with little fluctuation in egg prices as well. Meanwhile, oil prices have stabilized between 3.15 and 3.25 leva per liter, and sugar is now priced slightly below last year's levels. The cost of pulses has remained largely unchanged for the past two years.

Coffee and cocoa prices continue to experience volatility, impacting confectionery products, particularly chocolates. Ivanov noted that the peak in coffee and cocoa prices observed at the end of March is now being reflected in retail prices. However, he added that global stocks of these commodities are expected to increase, potentially leading to price adjustments in the near future.

Ivanov also highlighted a recent trend of declining fruit and vegetable prices, with exceptions like fresh potatoes, which contributed 2.50 leva to the 10 leva increase in the average consumer basket. Although the prices of cabbage and onions rose earlier in the year, they remain below last year's levels.

"The year began with a more pronounced increase in food prices compared to 2024," Ivanov said. "But in the past 10 days, we've seen a stabilization in prices." He anticipates that with warmer weather and higher product availability, food prices may begin to decline, maintaining a difference of 3% to 3.5% above last year’s levels. The supply of raw cow's milk has already increased as the milking season progresses, and early signs of a drop in butter prices are emerging.

Ivanov dismissed speculation that the upcoming transition from the leva to the euro is a factor driving food price inflation. "Pricing is determined by market dynamics and available quantities, with climate change being the most significant factor," he said.