Russia is set to close its airspace over the Kapustin Yar military training and rocket launch complex from May 12 to 13, prompting speculation of a possible ballistic missile launch, according to Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi. The notice regarding the airspace closure was published on the U.S. Defense Department's NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) website on May 10, as cited by Militarnyi.

This airspace restriction follows a similar flight ban imposed from November 21 to 23, 2024, preceding the first Russian strike using the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine. Militarnyi highlighted that Russia has a history of deploying close and short-range ballistic missiles in aerial attacks on Ukraine. However, intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) present a different level of threat, as they are capable of carrying nuclear payloads and reaching targets at significantly longer distances.

When approached by the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) declined to comment on the closure of airspace over Kapustin Yar. Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv issued a security alert on May 9, warning of a 'potentially significant' air attack in the coming days. The embassy urged U.S. citizens to remain vigilant and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if an air alert is announced.

The November 21 Oreshnik strike targeted the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro, marking the missile’s first deployment. At the time, the U.S. Defense Department received a brief advance warning from Russia about the attack, then-Defense Department Deputy Spokesperson Sabrina Singh said. Although the missile can be equipped with nuclear warheads, it was not armed with one during the Dnipro strike.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the attack as a response to Ukraine’s use of American and British weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. The Oreshnik missile is specifically designed to carry nuclear payloads, further amplifying concerns surrounding the upcoming airspace closure at Kapustin Yar.

Sources:

• Militarnyi
• The Kyiv Independent
• Ukrainska Pravda
• CNN