Bulgaria's population continues to shrink, a trend that has persisted for over 30 years. This ongoing decline is primarily driven by negative natural growth, with fewer births than deaths. However, this decrease is somewhat mitigated by mechanical growth, as more people have been moving to Bulgaria than leaving it. The majority of these newcomers are citizens from third countries, while less than a third are Bulgarians returning home, explained Magdalena Kostova from the National Statistical Institute (NSI).

Impact of Migration and Demographic Shifts

Assoc. Prof. Stoyanka Cherkezova from the Institute for Population Research noted that the complete demographic picture will be clearer once the results of the next census are available. She highlighted that the population decline was initially fueled by migration in the early 1990s. The country's birth rate continues to decrease, though at varying rates, and demographic trends are influenced by the country's economic and financial conditions.

Factors Contributing to Population Decrease

In addition to lower birth rates, Cherkezova explained that a decline in the number of women of childbearing age is contributing to the drop in births. This is linked to the aging population. Meanwhile, Kostova pointed out that while the number of people of working age is decreasing, the retirement age is rising. A concerning trend is the growing number of unemployed individuals compared to the shrinking working population.

Mortality and Health Challenges

In terms of mortality, Kostova noted that the country is returning to pre-pandemic levels, and there is even a slight positive trend. Nevertheless, the mortality rate remains high, with 20% of people dying before the age of 65, which raises concerns about the quality of healthcare and preventative measures in the country.

Long-Term Solutions and Census Plans

Cherkezova emphasized that reversing these negative trends will take time and cannot be expected in the short term. A significant change, if any, is unlikely before 27 years. Kostova added that future censuses will be conducted through administrative sources rather than questionnaires, aiming for more accurate demographic data.