As the "Zhelyazkov" government marks its 100-day milestone, public opinion has soured, with 66% of Bulgarians expressing dissatisfaction, a 4% increase in negative assessments compared to March. Only 19.2% of respondents maintain a positive view of the government. This shift reflects the gradual erosion of initial trust, a pattern observed in Bulgaria after the early stages of new governments. The data comes from an independent study by the "Myara" agency, conducted between April 3-13, 2025, with 807 adult participants. The margin of error is ±3.5%.

The political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same parties expected to enter parliament if elections were held in mid-April. The MECH party, however, has gained significant support, now on par with the TISP party. According to the survey, GERB would secure 26.4% of the vote, followed by WCC-DB at 14.2%, and “Revival” with 13.3%. DPS-New Beginning would be in fourth with 10.3%, while APS would garner 7.1%. Other government-aligned parties, such as BSP and TISP, trail behind, and MECH’s 6.2% marks a notable rise. Despite some shifts in support among protest movements, the overall electoral situation mirrors the fall 2024 elections, with no major changes.

Public Discontent with Parliament and Governmental Trust

The general sentiment towards the parliament is even more negative, with only 15.2% of Bulgarians approving its work, compared to 75.1% who disapprove. This consistent trend of negative perception has seen minimal fluctuations. On the other hand, public opinion towards the president stands at 49.4% positive and 35.4% negative, indicating a more stable level of approval compared to the government.

Sociological Perspective: Declining Confidence and Potential Risks

Sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov highlighted the government's growing lack of public confidence, particularly regarding budget transparency and concerns over corruption risks tied to an increase in foreign debt. Zhivkov also pointed to the Plovdiv smuggling case as a potential issue that could harm the government's reputation. While the government’s foreign policy, particularly its stance on Ukraine and efforts to enter the eurozone, receives some positive feedback, the overall trend is one of declining trust.

Zhivkov predicted that the ruling coalition could face challenges in the coming months, especially as internal contradictions may weaken its position. He also noted that while the government’s electoral support remains low, social tensions have not yet reached a level that would trigger an early election. However, the possibility of a caretaker government remains high, particularly after June, depending on the internal dynamics within the coalition.

Risk of Coalition Collapse and Future Challenges

The sociologist also pointed to tensions within the Sofia Municipal Council, where the economic majority has frequently clashed with the mayor's office. The "Spasi Sofia" party, a more radical faction, appears to be gearing up for a local election campaign. These ongoing conflicts suggest that while the current coalition will persist, the mayor’s ability to operate comfortably remains compromised.

Zhivkov also touched on the upcoming leadership changes within the "Da, Bulgaria" party, highlighting internal competition and debates about the potential impact of a grand coalition. He cautioned that while such coalitions may thrive in countries like Germany, there is a risk that party identities could blur, leading to the loss of distinct voter bases.