Romania on Edge: Russia's Potential Move Towards the Danube and Desire for Warm Seas

Romanian Defense Chief, Gheorghita Vlad, voiced growing concerns about the increased threat from Russia, stating that the danger today is more significant than it was two or three years ago. Speaking on Pro TV, he emphasized that the longer the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues, the greater the security risks become for Romania. Vlad noted that there is a clear fear that Russia may use a potential peace agreement to rearm and prepare for future conflicts, as Moscow has never abandoned its ambitions to regain influence over the territories once controlled by the Soviet Union.
Regarding Russia's objectives, Vlad acknowledged the growing possibility that Moscow could aim to reach the Danube River's mouth, a scenario he called "probable." He further explained that the Russian Federation has long aspired to access the warm seas, which would significantly alter regional power dynamics.
Vlad also mentioned discussions within NATO circles about the potential for Russia to challenge the alliance's cohesion. There are concerns that Russia might provoke a situation that could trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which commits all member states to defend an attacked country by any means necessary, including military force.
In addition to the growing external threats, Vlad pointed out vulnerabilities within the Romanian military. He highlighted the outdated Soviet-made T-55 tanks, which are present in three of Romania's five tank battalions, as a significant weakness. These tanks are ill-suited for modern warfare, and Romania is working to address this issue through armament programs. A contract has already been signed for a battalion of the latest US-made Abrams SEP v3 tanks to replace them.
Another challenge for Romania's military is its artillery, which includes 152-caliber guns and rifles, while NATO standardizes on the 155-caliber. This mismatch means that Romania could face difficulties receiving support from NATO allies in the event of conflict, as the required ammunition would not be compatible with Romania's existing weapons systems.

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