European nations bordering the Black Sea, particularly Bulgaria and Romania, are anxiously observing US-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia, fearing a potential agreement that could allow Moscow to regain influence in the contested region. As these nations are wary of any changes that could expand the operational area of the Russian navy, local officials have expressed concerns over a deal that could alter the security dynamics in their region.

US President Donald Trump has initiated direct talks with Moscow and Kyiv in an attempt to reach a peace agreement. The negotiations, which are not involving European nations directly, focus on a ceasefire in the Black Sea to facilitate the resumption of vital export routes for grain and fuel. Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, stated that the discussions aim to secure a ceasefire in the region to allow for the safe movement of goods.

The Black Sea holds strategic importance for these European states, as Ukraine has managed to push Russian naval forces out of the western part of the sea, a significant military achievement. The fear among Bulgarian and Romanian officials is that any agreement between the US and Russia could tilt the balance of power in favor of Moscow, affecting their national security without their involvement in the talks. One official stressed the importance of keeping the region secure, highlighting their mistrust of Russia gaining more leeway.

While US and Russian officials have characterized the March 24 talks as “technical,” involving lower-level representatives, optimism remains among the US delegation. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to Russia, expressed hope for significant progress, particularly regarding the Black Sea ceasefire, during an interview with Fox News.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Black Sea Initiative, including its potential renewal, is a central topic of discussion during the talks. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukraine to export agricultural products amidst the ongoing war, collapsed in mid-2023 after Russia withdrew. Since then, Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian port infrastructure, further escalating tensions in the region.

The ongoing negotiations come against the backdrop of growing concerns that Russia is deliberately stalling peace efforts to solidify its territorial gains and strengthen its position in future discussions. Reports suggest that Russia’s actions are aimed at prolonging the conflict to secure more leverage in negotiations with the US. Additionally, the Kremlin has faced accusations of continuing attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, despite agreeing to a 30-day halt in strikes on energy facilities.