Bulgaria's newly adopted defense strategy identifies Russia as a significant threat to national security, while reaffirming NATO and the European Union as key guarantors of the country's interests. The document, approved by the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov, outlines the changing security landscape in Europe following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The strategy highlights that Russia’s aggression has violated international legal norms, destabilized the European security architecture, and created an unpredictable environment. It does not rule out the possibility of violations against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of NATO and EU member states.

According to the document, regardless of how the war in Ukraine unfolds, Russia is expected to maintain its ambitions for military parity with Western countries, increasing the risk of nuclear escalation. The confrontation between Russia and NATO, particularly with the United States, is expected to persist, with Russian leadership continuing to portray American policies as an attempt to suppress its development and hinder its strategic objectives. This ongoing friction is likely to escalate tensions further.

The strategy also notes that Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue to deteriorate relations between Moscow and the European Union. The Russian economy will face mounting challenges due to EU-imposed sanctions and the diversification of energy sources, which will weaken Russia’s position in European markets. This economic pressure could lead to greater political instability within Russia and increase the likelihood of a renewed "iron curtain." To counterbalance its diminishing influence, Russia is expected to intensify efforts in information warfare, political interference, and economic leverage against individual EU member states, aiming to create divisions and resistance against sanctions.

The document underlines Russia’s broader strategic ambitions, particularly in the post-Soviet space, which it perceives as a buffer against NATO and the EU. The Kremlin's long-term goal remains not only to block Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration but also to undermine its sovereignty. A similar approach could be applied to Moldova and Georgia, raising concerns about the resurgence of frozen conflicts in the region.

Regarding the Western Balkans, the strategy warns of unresolved regional issues that could fuel nationalism and populism, further destabilizing the security environment. External actors, including Russia, China, and certain Arab states, are identified as playing a role in sustaining instability in the Balkans to advance their own geopolitical interests.