Several key allies of U.S. President Donald Trump have held confidential talks with Ukrainian opposition leaders, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and members of the party of former President Petro Poroshenko. These discussions have centered around the possibility of holding presidential elections in Ukraine despite the ongoing martial law. The talks have sparked concern as some believe that such elections could benefit Russia, given the challenges of organizing them amid the war, especially with a significant portion of the population either fighting on the frontlines or living abroad as refugees.

Trump's allies are reportedly confident that President Volodymyr Zelensky would lose any election due to growing public discontent over the prolonged conflict and widespread corruption. Despite his recent rise in popularity following a tense encounter with Trump in the Oval Office, Zelensky has faced declining approval ratings. Recent polls suggest that Zelensky still holds a commanding lead, with 44% of support, while his main rivals—Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Poroshenko—are far behind, with Poroshenko securing only 10% and Tymoshenko a mere 5.7%.

The U.S. administration, officially, has refrained from interfering in Ukraine's domestic politics, but Trump's rhetoric, including calling Zelensky a "dictator without elections," suggests otherwise. Moreover, Trump's officials, including National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard, have falsely claimed that Ukraine has canceled elections. While the Trump camp might hope that elections could challenge Zelensky’s leadership, the president remains the most popular figure in Ukraine, especially when compared to Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.

Backchannel discussions also include the possibility of organizing elections after a temporary ceasefire is agreed, though the Kremlin has long wanted to see Zelensky removed. Despite the efforts by opposition figures to present themselves as more agreeable to Russia and the U.S., both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko have publicly opposed holding elections before the war ends. The pressure from Trump and his allies has nonetheless been pushing some Ukrainian political factions to signal a willingness to engage in peace negotiations and repair strained relations with Washington.

Ukrainian parliamentarians have increasingly shown signs of aligning themselves with Trump’s vision, given the high stakes of Ukraine's relationship with the U.S. and the risk of losing critical support. Some leaders have openly called for re-establishing ties with the U.S., with a sense of urgency growing following Trump’s decision to pause military aid to Ukraine. The political environment in Ukraine remains fluid, with some factions even considering the idea of shifting their allegiances in light of the changing dynamics.

Meanwhile, Tymoshenko has been trying to recruit lawmakers from rival parties to form a new parliamentary majority, banking on the assumption that elections will soon be inevitable. However, Zelensky has dismissed these speculations and expressed confidence that, even if elections were to occur, he would remain a strong contender. He has further suggested he would only step down if Ukraine were to secure NATO membership, as that would fulfill his mission.

The tense diplomatic situation between Kyiv and Washington has not severely weakened Zelensky’s position, but the fallout from the Oval Office confrontation may have long-term consequences. The Ukrainian public’s opinion on the war is shifting, with a growing portion of the population advocating for peace talks. While some still call for continuing the fight until Russian forces are fully expelled from Ukraine, a majority are more focused on negotiating an end to the conflict, even if it requires significant concessions from Ukraine.

Source: Politico