A shortage of sunflower seeds is threatening Bulgaria's sunflower oil industry, with factories shutting down and price hikes expected. Supermarkets will not be responsible for the rising prices, as the industry grapples with limited supplies.

According to the Association of Sunflower Oil Producers, many processing facilities in Bulgaria have already ceased operations. The main reason cited is the government's refusal to restrict sunflower imports from Ukraine. This decision, coupled with a poor 2024 harvest, which yielded only about 1.42 million tons, has exacerbated the crisis.

Bulgarian processors require approximately 1.5 million tons of sunflower seeds annually to meet demand, but domestic production falls short. In previous years, the shortfall was offset by imports, primarily from Ukraine. However, restrictions on Ukrainian imports, imposed under pressure from Bulgarian sunflower producers, have now created a severe supply crunch for oil mills.

Bulgaria has historically been an exporter of raw sunflower seeds, but significant private investments in processing facilities have transformed the country into a major sunflower oil exporter. The sector is a key contributor to Bulgaria’s GDP and tax revenues, producing sunflower-based products at a scale that far exceeds domestic consumption.

The situation is reminiscent of 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted agricultural markets, triggering panic buying across Europe. At the time, sunflower oil prices in Bulgaria soared to 7-8 leva per liter, with supermarkets witnessing frenzied demand. That year, Bulgaria’s factories exported 910,000 tons of sunflower oil and 930,000 tons of sunflower meal, generating over €2.5 million in revenue.

Between 2022 and 2023, Bulgaria imported around 1.4 million tons of sunflower seeds, with 800,000 tons coming from Ukraine. This influx allowed local processors to operate at full capacity, processing over 3 million tons of sunflower. However, with current restrictions on imports, the industry is now facing a major crisis.

To stay afloat, producers warn that they will be forced to raise prices. Traditional export markets for Bulgarian sunflower oil include India and South Africa, while sunflower meal is shipped to China, Israel, and Morocco. Peeled sunflower is exported to markets such as the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.