Ukraine is expected to maintain its current pace of fighting through the summer without additional US military aid, according to current and former Western officials, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. While Ukraine has received substantial support from Western nations, including nearly US$70 billion from the United States since the start of Russia's invasion, there are concerns about potential shortages of ammunition and the inability to replace some advanced weapons by mid-year.

Celeste Wallander, a former senior Pentagon official, stated that the arms shipments from the Biden administration should be enough to sustain Ukraine's efforts until at least the summer. However, some Ukrainian analysts believe the country could last even longer. Europe is preparing to fill the gap, with the European Union, the UK, and Norway contributing US$25 billion in 2024, surpassing US aid for that year. Additionally, Europe has ramped up its production of artillery shells, and discussions are underway to increase the EU's contribution to US$30 billion this year.

Despite these efforts, certain US-supplied weapons, including advanced air defense systems and long-range missile capabilities, will be difficult to replace quickly. Some of these weapons are irreplaceable in the short term, as Europe does not produce enough of these systems, and in some cases, none at all. Once these supplies are depleted, Ukraine’s ability to strike long-range targets and defend its rear positions could be significantly weakened.

Ukraine has also bolstered its own munitions industry, now producing US$30 billion worth of weapons annually, a six-fold increase from the previous year. According to Ukraine’s strategic industry minister, the country now manufactures or finances around 55% of its military equipment, with the US providing 20% and Europe 25%. However, as noted by Czech government envoy Tomas Kopecny, having a partner that supplies the highest quality military technologies is irreplaceable in certain areas.

Before leaving office, former President Joe Biden took steps to ensure that Ukraine could continue its defense efforts. The administration secured weapons from US stockpiles and signed contracts to procure ammunition, air defense interceptors, and other materials, which are expected to last until 2026. Wallander explained that these efforts were designed to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position and signal to Putin that the country could continue fighting.

However, the political landscape has shifted since Biden's departure. Former President Donald Trump has criticized Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, echoing Russian narratives about the war and calling Zelenskyy a dictator. Trump's remarks were followed by statements from House Speaker Mike Johnson, who suggested there was no desire in Congress to approve additional aid for Ukraine.

Source: WSJ