Germany is on the brink of a power shift as the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured victory in the early parliamentary elections. The conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, emerged as the leading force but with a narrower margin than expected. Official results show that 28.6% of voters backed the CDU/CSU, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 20.8%, maintaining its position as the second-largest party but remaining politically isolated.

The election results indicate that the CDU/CSU will need only one coalition partner to form a government, with the most likely candidate being the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The conservatives will have 208 seats in the Bundestag, and together with the SPD, they could establish a majority under a so-called "grand coalition." Merz, expected to become Germany’s next chancellor, has set a goal to conclude coalition negotiations by Easter.

The three parties in Scholz’s outgoing coalition suffered heavy losses. The SPD recorded its worst-ever election performance, receiving just 16.4% of the vote. The Greens finished fourth with 11.6%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to clear the 5% threshold, barring them from parliament. Meanwhile, the Left Party, unexpectedly, managed to enter the Bundestag with 8.8% support.

Scholz acknowledged his party’s defeat and confirmed that the SPD would enter coalition talks with the conservatives but stated he would not lead the negotiations, hinting at his departure from party leadership. The outcome of these discussions will determine the final shape of the new government.

A shift in Germany’s stance on transatlantic relations has also emerged as a key issue. Friedrich Merz emphasized that Europe must strengthen its defense capabilities to reduce reliance on the United States. "An absolute priority for me is for Europeans to find a common position. Germany is currently missing in European politics. Our first task will be to strengthen European defense in such a way that we are no longer dependent on the United States," he stated. The evolving relationship between Europe and the new U.S. administration is expected to be a central topic in the coming months.