Is Bulgaria Ready for the Euro? Economists Discuss the Path Ahead

The question of whether Bulgaria can fulfill the criteria for joining the Eurozone was discussed by several economic experts on NOVA News this morning. The macroeconomist Prof. Garabed Minasyan, economist Vladimir Sirkarov, and Dimitar Sabev from the Institute for Economic Research at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences shared their views on the matter.
Minasyan emphasized that in addition to the Maastricht criteria, the European Central Bank (ECB) evaluates other factors when assessing a country's readiness for the euro area. He noted that Bulgaria does not meet three of the 13 key indicators monitored by the ECB. Specifically, these include the rapid increase in labor costs, rising housing prices beyond permissible levels, and excessive loans taken by the population, all of which need to be addressed for successful integration into the euro area.
Economist Sirkarov stressed the importance of aligning Bulgaria's economy with the dynamics of Western Europe and the eurozone countries. He pointed out that Bulgaria is close to meeting the inflation criterion, but expressed concerns about fulfilling the budget deficit requirement. Sirkarov noted the current political uncertainty, suggesting that the budget deficit issue is not being properly addressed, which could hinder progress towards joining the euro area.
Sabev raised concerns that Bulgaria might be rushing the process of entering the eurozone. He argued that the country should carefully consider whether it is truly in its best interest to join the euro area at the earliest opportunity or whether it would be better to wait until all conditions are met. Sabev proposed that Bulgaria should target 2028 for eurozone membership, giving the country more time to prepare.
Minasyan, on the other hand, argued that the timing of Bulgaria’s entry into the euro area was less important than ensuring the country is fully prepared for the transition. Sirkarov suggested that the most optimistic scenario for Bulgaria’s eurozone entry would be early 2026, but he placed the odds at 50/50 due to the challenges that remain.
The experts agreed that Bulgaria’s path to the euro area should not be rushed, and proper preparation is crucial for ensuring that the transition benefits the country's long-term economic stability.
Source: NOVA News

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