A recent survey within Bulgaria's financial sector reveals a growing concern among businesses regarding employment levels, with many expecting a decline in new hires. The survey, which includes representatives from commercial banks, investment intermediaries, pension insurance companies, and management firms, highlights a shift in sentiment compared to previous reports. While 53% of financial intermediaries expect no change in employee numbers, the proportion of those anticipating a decrease (27%) now exceeds those predicting an increase (20%).

Data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) shows that, despite overall cautious expectations, the retail trade sector remains the most optimistic about hiring, with expectations for job growth. In contrast, the construction, industry, and services sectors are generally neutral, forecasting little change in employment. Notably, the industrial sector has experienced a decline in workforce numbers over the past two years, and this trend may continue into the fourth quarter of 2024, partly due to persistent challenges related to external demand.

The survey also touches upon the stability of interest rates, with most financial experts predicting that deposit rates will remain unchanged during the fourth quarter. While expectations for loan interest rates have shifted slightly, the general outlook is that rates may either stay the same or decrease, reflecting the recent moves by central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to reduce their key interest rates. Despite these forecasts, the weighted average interest rate on deposits in leva decreased slightly in October, while the rate for dollar-denominated deposits rose marginally.

Sources:

• National Statistical Institute (NSI)
• econ.bg