The DeepState analytical project reported significant Russian advances in Donetsk and Kursk oblasts on the night of 9-10 January, with several settlements now under Russian occupation. According to the report, the Russian forces have seized Petropavlivka, Vozdvyzhenka, and Solone in Donetsk Oblast. In Kursk Oblast, the Russians took control of Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, and Aleksandriya. The report also highlighted Russian progress near Zapadne and Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast, as well as near Kurakhove and Yasenove in Donetsk.

The situation on the frontlines has been escalating rapidly. On 7 January, DeepState reported that Russian forces had nearly fully occupied Kurakhove, positioning them to advance further westward. Heavy fighting continues in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, with the city's infrastructure suffering under Russian scorched earth tactics. Additionally, Russian forces are preparing to assault Velyka Novosilka, as reported on 8 January, concentrating assault groups in the region. Meanwhile, attacks on the city of Pokrovsk have intensified, with Russian troops now within three kilometers of the city.

In a related development, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian military and security officials are urging President Putin to escalate the conflict in Ukraine, rejecting any potential negotiations. Despite significant territorial losses and heavy casualties, these officials believe that an intensified military effort, including partial conscription, is necessary to maintain pressure on Ukraine. The ISW highlighted that although Russian advances have slowed, with daily progress down to nine square kilometers in December 2024, military officials are still pushing for more aggressive tactics, viewing personnel losses as a necessary cost for tactical gains.

Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed his concerns over Russia's growing desperation. During a press conference following the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting in Germany, Austin confirmed that Russia has suffered over 700,000 casualties since the war began, with losses including both killed and wounded personnel. Austin pointed out that Russia’s inability to replace these losses had led them to recruit soldiers from North Korea, which has now resulted in over 1,000 casualties among the North Korean troops since their enlistment. He described this as a clear sign of Putin's desperation to maintain the war effort despite mounting losses.

In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is reportedly blocking a new military assistance package for Ukraine, worth billions of euros. The package, proposed by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, would include additional IRIS-T batteries, interceptors for Patriot systems, self-propelled howitzers, and artillery ammunition. However, Scholz's office has signaled that the package is unnecessary, arguing that existing plans will suffice in the short term. This decision has stalled the approval process, with Scholz reportedly fearing the potential political fallout from such a large expenditure in the run-up to Germany's spring elections. The decision reflects the broader political divide within the Social Democratic Party, with Baerbock and Pistorius pushing for increased defense spending to support Ukraine, while Scholz is cautious about alienating undecided voters.

The lack of consensus in Germany highlights the growing tensions within Europe as nations debate how to best support Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression. Scholz's refusal to approve the package means that the aid will not proceed unless there is a shift in his stance, further complicating Germany's role in the European response to the crisis in Ukraine.

Sources:

• DeepState
• Ukrainska Pravda
• ISW
• Spiegel