Ukraine’s military forces confirmed a strike on the Stalnoi Kon linear production dispatch station, an oil depot located in Russia’s Oryol Oblast, on the night of 13-14 December. The facility, described as one of the largest oil product terminals in the area, sustained significant damage, causing a large fire. The General Staff noted that the station is part of Russia’s military-industrial complex, supplying oil products to the Russian army. Earlier, social media reports mentioned explosions in the region.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air defense downed 58 out of 132 Russian attack drones launched during the same night. Of the remaining drones, 72 disappeared from radar, and two returned to Russian territory. The drones originated from Kursk, Oryol, Bryansk, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, prompting air defense responses in multiple Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv, Cherkasy, Odesa, and Kharkiv oblasts.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that recent Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are part of a broader strategy aimed at pressuring Ukraine and the West during the winter. Between 12-13 December, Russia executed the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of its full-scale invasion. Ukrainian authorities reported widespread damage to critical infrastructure and energy facilities in Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, and other regions, with DTEK confirming serious harm to thermal power plants. Increased power outages were imposed across the country.

The strikes also affected Ukraine's nuclear energy sector, with five of the nine reactors on Ukraine-controlled territory reducing output due to the attacks. Three reactors returned to full capacity on 13 December, while two remain operating at limited capacity following damage from prior strikes in November.

Analysts believe that Ukrainian attacks on Russian military airfields and air defense systems could force Russia to relocate its aircraft deeper into its territory, limiting its ability to conduct strikes. The ISW highlighted that such actions might degrade Russian air defenses over occupied Ukrainian territories, reducing the frequency of Russian airstrikes on both frontline and rear Ukrainian positions.

The ISW also noted that Russian officials framed the strikes as retaliation for Ukraine’s recent use of Western-supplied ATACMS in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, on 11 December. However, the analysts argued that the strikes were likely preplanned, with the Kremlin leveraging the Taganrog incident to justify its ongoing campaign. This narrative, analysts suggest, serves to mollify ultranationalist demands for retaliation while pushing Western nations to reconsider their support for Ukraine.

On the ground, Russian forces have made advances in Donetsk Oblast, occupying Veselyi Hai, Yelyzavetivka, Romanivka, Novotroitske, and Pushkine. The settlements are part of a cluster near Uspenivka, an area Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend. DeepState analysts reported further Russian advances near Kostiantynopilske, Sukhi Yaly, and other villages, contributing to fears of a potential encirclement of Uspenivka. Ukrainian military leadership responded to the situation with a change in command, replacing the Joint Task Force leader in Donetsk.

In the diplomatic arena, representatives of US President-elect Donald Trump have been engaging with both the Biden administration and Ukrainian officials to explore ways to end the conflict. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has held discussions with Trump’s incoming team, though specific plans have yet to emerge. Recent talks included meetings between Trump’s vice president-elect and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sources described these discussions as constructive, with Trump’s advisers acknowledging that Ukraine is not the obstacle to peace.

While Trump previously claimed he could resolve the conflict within 24 hours, Ukrainian officials have stated that no formal peace plan has been presented. Andrii Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, confirmed that Trump’s team has shared only general ideas about potential solutions. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has expressed cautious optimism regarding the engagement, interpreting Trump’s statements as an indication of his intention to pursue peace.

Sources:

• Ukrainska Pravda
• Telegram
• ISW
• DeepState
• NBC