Amid growing concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel has reportedly drawn up plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, with its military continuing preparations for potential airstrikes. The backdrop of this development is Iran’s increasingly volatile position in the region, following the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime and significant setbacks for Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. These regional shifts, coupled with two rounds of Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets, have fueled speculations that Iran may seek nuclear weapons as a deterrent against Israel.

Israel has long maintained that an Iranian nuclear weapon poses an existential threat to the country, and its leaders have repeatedly vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring such capabilities. The Times of Israel reported that Israeli military officials believe there is an opportunity to carry out pre-emptive strikes to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially given the weakened state of Iran and its allies in the region. Some experts now view Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons as a way to rebuild its deterrence capabilities, which have been severely impacted over the past year.

Iran had formally suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and in 2015, a historic agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed between Iran and several Western nations, including the United States. Under this deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, in 2018, the US under President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement, prompting Iran to resume its nuclear activities, increasing the enrichment of uranium.

Currently, Iran’s enriched uranium is close to weapons-grade, with reports indicating that Iran could potentially produce enough material for four nuclear warheads in a matter of weeks or days. However, it would take an additional 12 to 18 months to convert this material into actual warheads. Despite this, US intelligence assessments have stated that while Iran has the capability to make nuclear weapons quickly, it has not yet initiated the actual production of a weapon. Additionally, Israel’s airstrikes over the past year have reportedly delayed Iran’s progress in developing nuclear weapons, though Netanyahu has warned that the threat remains.

In October, Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian facilities, including the Taleghan 2 facility at the Parchin military complex, where critical equipment needed for nuclear weapons production was destroyed. This facility had been storing the equipment, which predated Iran's suspension of its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Israeli officials confirmed that this equipment was crucial for advancing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, further delaying the country's progress.

Despite these setbacks, Iran's nuclear program continues to progress, and the Israeli military remains on high alert, prepared for the possibility of future strikes if necessary. Israel's focus remains on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, a goal that continues to shape its military strategy in the region.

Sources:

• The Times of Israel
• The New York Times
• Axios