As of November 2024, approximately 70% of Ukrainians expressed support for a NATO membership pathway modeled on the process used for divided Germany. This approach envisions Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO within its internationally recognized borders while delaying the application of Article 5 guarantees to territories occupied by Russia.

The model draws from the case of West Germany, which joined NATO in 1955, with East Germany remaining outside the Alliance until reunification nearly four decades later. However, a key distinction in Ukraine’s scenario is that the invitation would cover the entire nation’s recognized borders from the outset. Discussions on this concept have reportedly circulated in Western circles as part of broader deliberations on potential solutions to the ongoing war and measures to deter future Russian aggression.

The findings were based on a survey conducted by Info Sapiens for the New Europe Center, involving 1,000 respondents between November 15 and 27, 2024. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1% at a confidence level of 95%.

Elsewhere, Russia continues to endure heavy personnel and equipment losses in its war against Ukraine. Over the past day, Russian forces sustained 1,350 casualties, bringing the total number of killed and wounded personnel to an estimated 755,940 since February 2022. Ukrainian sources also reported the destruction of thousands of military vehicles, tanks, and artillery systems, with updates noting significant damage to Russia's armoured combat vehicle fleet and other key assets.

In the Kharkiv Oblast, Russian missile strikes targeted the town of Zlatopil, injuring ten civilians, including eight women and two men. A second missile attack caused additional damage to an administrative building and led to further injuries. Casualties ranged in age from 29 to 62, with most requiring hospitalization. The attack primarily affected an area near a bank, damaging civilian vehicles and several non-residential structures.

Meanwhile, analysts point to deepening strains on Russia’s defense industrial base and economy. Ongoing sanctions, widespread corruption, and the costs of sustaining the war have created significant challenges. Russia has reportedly spent over 200 billion dollars on the conflict, with liquid assets in its National Welfare Fund dropping from $140 billion in February 2022 to $53.8 billion by December 2024. Efforts to stabilize finances have increasingly relied on yuan reserves and gold sales.

Economic pressures have intensified due to rising corruption, with a 30% increase in bribery-related crimes reported in 2024. Over 30,000 officials faced disciplinary action for corruption violations this year alone. The inefficiencies of Russia’s defense sector, compounded by labour shortages, have further jeopardized its capacity to sustain military operations while maintaining economic stability.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has emphasized that these pressures threaten the long-term sustainability of Russia’s war effort. Simultaneously, Russian military leaders face mounting internal challenges, with high-profile promotions and blame-shifting signaling increasing discontent within the country’s leadership.

Sources:

• Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
• Ukrainska Pravda
• European Pravda
• New Europe Center
• Telegram
• Facebook