Russia’s recent acts of sabotage against Western infrastructure may eventually prompt NATO to consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause, according to Bruno Kahl, head of Germany's foreign intelligence service. Speaking at a think tank event in Berlin, Kahl warned that Moscow’s increased use of hybrid warfare tactics, such as cyberattacks and sabotage, raises the possibility that NATO may be compelled to take collective defensive action under the alliance's Article 5. This clause obliges member countries to defend each other if one is attacked, marking a significant escalation if invoked.

Kahl highlighted that Russia’s military potential is growing, with Moscow's forces becoming more capable of direct confrontation with NATO in the near future. He also noted that the use of hybrid warfare tools could continue to increase the likelihood of a military clash between Russia and NATO. He explained that such actions may not necessarily involve large-scale territorial grabs but could aim to undermine Western unity by testing NATO's response to smaller provocations, such as localized attacks or border adjustments, particularly in regions like the Baltics or the Arctic.

One specific incident fueling these concerns was the severing of key undersea cables in the Baltic Sea in November. Investigators traced the attack to a Chinese-flagged vessel, Yi Peng 3, which is believed to have deliberately dragged its anchor to cut cables linking Lithuania to Sweden and Germany. The attack is suspected to be part of Russia’s broader hybrid warfare strategy, which includes both physical and cyber sabotage. European officials have expressed alarm, fearing that the West is ill-prepared to counter such unconventional tactics.

While there are no clear indications that Russia is planning an outright war, Kahl warned that if sentiments within the Russian government shift toward more aggressive strategies, the risk of a military confrontation with NATO could grow in the coming years. He speculated that a Russian assault on NATO members might aim to weaken the alliance by testing its resolve, rather than seeking massive territorial gains. According to Kahl, if NATO’s Article 5 were not triggered in response to such an attack, it could deal a blow to the alliance’s credibility and unity.

Meanwhile, NATO and Western intelligence agencies have been closely monitoring Russia’s expanding use of hybrid warfare tactics. These activities range from cyberattacks to sabotage and arson, all of which Russia has denied involvement in. Kahl emphasized that Russia's military readiness has been bolstered by its combat experience in Ukraine, where it has honed its use of modern weapons, including drones. However, despite growing concerns, there is currently no indication that Russia intends to escalate into full-scale warfare against NATO.

Background:

The concept of hybrid warfare refers to a mix of conventional military force, irregular tactics, and cyber and informational warfare. Russia has been increasingly using these methods in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and in its broader geopolitical strategy. This includes the deliberate disruption of infrastructure, as seen with the Baltic Sea cable attack, which could disrupt critical communication networks across Europe. Hybrid warfare poses unique challenges for NATO and its allies, as it operates in grey areas that are not easily countered by traditional military responses. NATO’s Article 5 has been invoked only once in the alliance’s history, following the September 11 attacks on the U.S., making the idea of its invocation in a confrontation with Russia a serious consideration for the future.