Romania’s incumbent Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), is set to be eliminated in the first round of the country’s presidential election, paving the way for a run-off between two right-wing candidates. With 99.9% of the votes counted as of Monday morning, pro-Russian, hard-right, NATO-sceptic Calin Georgescu was leading the race with 22.9% of the vote. Center-right candidate Elena Lasconi, buoyed by ballots from Romanians living abroad, secured second place with 19.16%.

Despite being the pre-election favorite, Ciolacu, who had been projected to win 25% in exit polls, was on track to finish third. Georgescu, a former member of the far-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians party, had been polling at only 5% leading up to the election. His remarkable rise to the top spot marks a dramatic shift in Romania’s political landscape. Georgescu has long been a vocal critic of NATO, calling the alliance’s defense systems in Romania a "shame of diplomacy" and stating that NATO would not protect its members if attacked by Russia. His unexpected lead has stunned many observers, with political analyst Radu Magdin commenting that such a surge in support had not been seen since Romania’s transition to democracy in 1989.

The Romanian presidency holds primarily ceremonial powers, but the role has some semi-executive influence, especially over defense spending—an important issue for the country, which shares a 650-kilometer (400-mile) border with Ukraine. Romania is under pressure to increase its NATO contributions while also addressing a significant fiscal deficit. The position is set to replace outgoing president Klaus Iohannis, who has been a strong supporter of Ukraine since taking office in 2014.

In the election, Ciolacu had hoped to secure stability for Romania through his campaign promises, emphasizing continued support for neighboring Ukraine and a commitment to NATO. Lasconi, a former journalist and leader of the Save Romania Union (USR), has focused her campaign on combating corruption, bolstering defense spending, and ensuring continued aid to Ukraine. Whoever emerges victorious in the second round will take on the presidency and inherit the responsibility of navigating Romania’s role within NATO and its ongoing support for Ukraine amidst the conflict with Russia.