Trump’s Strategy for Ukraine: Freeze Conflict, Exclude NATO Membership
Donald Trump's approach to ending the war in Ukraine appears to consist of three competing peace plans, none of which involve Ukraine's accession to NATO
Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, stated that the West should acknowledge Russia's advantage in the conflict with Ukraine and initiate negotiations to end the war, according to a report by Reuters. The conflict, now in its third year, appears to be nearing a possible final phase after significant Russian advances since August and the recent election of Donald Trump as the 47th U.S. president.
Trump had pledged during his campaign to bring about peace in Ukraine within 24 hours if elected, although he did not specify a plan for resolving Europe’s most intense conflict since World War II. Yesterday, the Kremlin cautiously welcomed Trump’s victory, though it maintained its view of the U.S. as an unfriendly country, reserving judgment on whether Trump’s statements about peace would translate into action.
Shoigu, previously Russia’s defense minister for over a decade until moving to the Security Council in May, suggested that the West initially aimed to use Ukraine to impose a strategic defeat on Russia, a strategy he believes has failed. He urged Western countries to decide whether to continue supporting Ukraine, risking further Ukrainian losses, or to recognize the new “realities” on the ground and pursue negotiations.
Addressing security service representatives from the Commonwealth of Independent States in Moscow, Shoigu criticized the Ukrainian government as a "terrorist" entity, controlled by foreign influences. He argued that with the current military situation unfavorable to Kyiv, continued Western support would only harm Ukraine’s population.
Reuters previously reported that Putin, earlier this year, was willing to consider a ceasefire based on current front lines, but remains prepared to continue hostilities if Kyiv and the West decline. Western leaders and Ukrainian officials, however, view Russia’s actions as an imperialist attempt by Putin to reclaim territory, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for more Western support to repel the invasion.
Putin has framed the war as an existential struggle against a declining West, which he accuses of encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence since the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, with Ukraine as the latest flashpoint. Conflict in eastern Ukraine initially began in 2014, following the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian president and the annexation of Crimea by Russia, with Moscow-supported separatists subsequently clashing with Ukrainian forces.
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