As War Looms, European Powers Revive Diplomacy with Tehran
As hostilities between Israel and Iran stretch into their second week, European powers are intensifying diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader regional war
Hezbollah has softened its stance on linking a ceasefire in Lebanon with a truce in Gaza, as Israeli ground operations continue along the Lebanese-Israeli border, coupled with airstrikes in Beirut and surrounding regions. Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem stated that they support efforts led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri aimed at securing a ceasefire in Lebanon. Qassem, in a televised speech marking the anniversary of Hezbollah's involvement in the conflict, emphasized that once the ceasefire is established, further decisions would be addressed collaboratively.
Reports indicate that covert negotiations are underway involving the United States, Arab states, and Iran, aimed at achieving a comprehensive ceasefire to de-escalate conflicts across multiple fronts. A senior Israeli official suggested that any ceasefire agreement would involve Hezbollah withdrawing beyond the Litani River and dismantling military installations near the border. The United States and Israel are expected to discuss these matters further during an upcoming call between President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Following the launch of Israel’s military campaign, dubbed "Northern Arrows," on September 23 targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, Israeli forces escalated their operations by initiating ground assaults in southern Lebanon from October 1. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on September 27, leading to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's announcement of intensified efforts against Hezbollah’s leadership. Netanyahu claimed that the Israeli Defense Forces had also eliminated Nasrallah’s successors, reinforcing Israel’s commitment to dismantling Hezbollah’s command structure.
The US State Department noted Hezbollah’s shift in rhetoric regarding a ceasefire, interpreting it as a sign of the militant group’s weakened position. Spokesperson Matthew Miller highlighted Hezbollah's previous insistence on linking a Lebanese ceasefire to Gaza, contrasting it with the group’s current stance of supporting separate political efforts for peace in Lebanon. However, Miller expressed skepticism about Hezbollah's intentions, citing past failures to uphold ceasefire commitments.
Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the people of Lebanon directly, urging them to reclaim their country from Hezbollah’s influence. In a video message, he warned that if Hezbollah continues to operate from densely populated areas, Lebanon risks further conflict similar to that in Gaza. Netanyahu framed Hezbollah as a proxy for Iran, blaming the group for Lebanon’s destabilization and using Lebanese territory as a base for attacks on Israel.
Netanyahu stressed the critical juncture facing the Lebanese people, urging them to resist Hezbollah and restore Lebanon’s path to peace and prosperity. He condemned Hezbollah for firing over 8,000 missiles at Israel in the past year, resulting in casualties among various religious communities. The Israeli leader emphasized that Israel’s military actions were necessary to protect its citizens and would continue until stability was restored.
The humanitarian impact of the ongoing conflict has raised concerns, with the World Health Organization reporting that over 6% of Gaza’s population has been killed or injured in the past year. The Gaza Health Ministry estimates that more than 35,000 Palestinians have died, while 10,000 remain trapped under rubble. Médecins Sans Frontières criticized Israeli evacuation orders, claiming that they have forced tens of thousands to flee to overcrowded areas in the south of Gaza under inhumane conditions.
In Lebanon, the Ministry of Health reported that the death toll from Israeli airstrikes has reached 2,119, with 10,019 injured since the onset of hostilities. The past 24 hours alone saw 36 fatalities and 150 injuries. As airstrikes persist, Lebanon’s emergency response infrastructure is under severe pressure, with most of the 990 shelter centers now filled to capacity, accommodating over 181,700 displaced persons.
The Israeli Defense Forces reported that recent airstrikes eliminated 50 Hezbollah operatives, including six senior figures from the group's Southern Front and Radwan Force. The IDF also claimed significant damage to Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure in southern Lebanon, which it said was designed to launch attacks on Israeli territories. The operation targeted various units and installations, weakening Hezbollah's military capacity in the region.
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