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The New York Times (NYT) has analyzed Ukraine's current military strategy in its ongoing war with Russia, concluding that the Ukrainian armed forces are attempting to wear down the Russian army through intense and bloody battles in the Donbas region. The effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain, according to the publication's authors.
In the past year, Ukraine has lost several cities in the Donetsk region, but these losses came only after fierce confrontations in which the Russian army suffered significant casualties and equipment losses. Military expert Mykola Bielieskov from the Ukrainian State Institute for Strategic Studies described this tactic as a strategy of "trading territory for Russian losses."
A soldier from the 411th battalion of the Ukrainian Air Force, stationed near Pokrovsk, expressed concerns over how much Russia will lose before realizing the futility of its efforts. However, he noted that some Ukrainian commanders are inclined to abandon positions if it reduces the risk of casualties among their troops.
According to analysts cited in the NYT article, the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has further strained Ukrainian resources. Military expert Pasi Paroinen from the Finnish company Black Bird Group highlighted that, in the past two months, the Russian army has captured approximately 700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, nearly three times the area it occupied in June and July.
Despite these gains, the Russian military has a considerable distance to cover before achieving its objective of seizing all of Donetsk. To accomplish this, the Russian forces must secure about 10,000 square kilometers—approximately five times the territory they have occupied over the past year.
The report also noted that Russia experiences nearly 1,200 killed and wounded soldiers daily in Ukraine, with damaged Russian armored vehicles outnumbering Ukrainian losses by a factor of three. Experts from the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) warn that, at the current rate of Russian losses and the production capacity of its factories, Russia could deplete its heavy equipment reserves by 2026.
Nonetheless, Ukraine also faces considerable losses, given its limited resources in terms of conscripts and military production capabilities. Experts interviewed by the NYT suggest that Ukraine can endure the battle for Donbas while awaiting a cumulative effect from Russian losses. However, some commentators express concern that the risks for the Ukrainian Armed Forces have increased since their operations began in the Kursk region.
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