Russian troops have made significant advances in Vuhledar, a strategic city in Donetsk Oblast. Analysts from DeepState have reported that Russian forces are posting photos of their flags in various parts of the city. Video footage circulating online shows Russian soldiers waving flags from atop destroyed buildings, which Reuters has confirmed matches the layout of Vuhledar.

Confirmed. Russia has fully occupied Vuhledar. Russian units from the 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade raised their flag over the Vuhledar City Council. Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to Bohoyavlenka, north of Vuhledar. pic.twitter.com/q2OZueh9Gc

— NOELREPORTS ???????? ???????? (@NOELreports) October 1, 2024

On October 1, Vadym Filashkin, Head of Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, stated that Russian troops were near the city’s center, and intense fighting was ongoing. The remaining 107 residents in Vuhledar were facing increasingly difficult conditions, with the delivery of humanitarian aid almost impossible. Filashkin described the situation as dire, urging residents to evacuate. Russian forces had reached the outskirts the week prior and have since escalated their offensive.

Since August, Russian troops have made their fastest territorial gains in over two years in eastern Ukraine. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, estimated that about 2,000 to 3,000 Russian soldiers were attacking Vuhledar from three directions, making it unlikely for Ukrainian forces to hold the city. He emphasized that a decision to retreat should be made swiftly to preserve Ukrainian troops.

The city holds strategic significance due to its elevated position and proximity to two major front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine. Full control of Vuhledar would enable Russian forces to better utilize railway lines and strengthen their logistics in the Donbas region. Russian military bloggers have been celebrating the capture of the city, believing it could accelerate Moscow’s offensive in the area.

Combat footage from DeepState suggests Russian forces are now present throughout the city. However, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground have indicated they have yet to receive orders to retreat. Andriy Nazarenko, a commander in Ukraine’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade, described the situation as extremely challenging, with Russian troops rotating fresh units into the area. He stated that his unit was working to maintain a corridor for the Ukrainian infantry to retreat.

As of Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been receiving direct updates from the military on the situation in Vuhledar. However, Moscow has not officially confirmed the capture of the city. The town is located in Donetsk, one of four Ukrainian provinces that Russia claimed to have annexed in 2022.

The fall of Vuhledar would mark a significant loss for Ukrainian forces, who have held the city for over two years despite repeated Russian assaults. On September 26, DeepState co-founder Ruslan Mikula had warned that the city’s loss was imminent, with the situation becoming more critical by the day. Volunteers and Ukrainian soldiers alike have expressed their determination to defend the city, where many have already laid down their lives.

Russian forces have now advanced to the center of Vuhledar, turning the once small mining town into a devastated battlefield. The town's high ground has provided Ukrainian forces with a strategic advantage during the conflict, but the prolonged assaults have taken their toll. Despite a surprise Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow’s forces have continued to press forward in the Donbas region, maintaining the initiative on the battlefield.