Since late 2022, Bulgaria and Romania have been primarily focused on Austria regarding their inclusion in the Schengen Agreement. This agreement, initiated in 1985, allows for border-free travel across Europe. However, Austria's unexpected veto halted the EU’s plan to incorporate both countries into the Schengen zone. The Austrian government, particularly the People's Party within the Black-Green coalition, cited concerns over an influx of migrants entering Austria via Bulgaria and Romania. This stance faced criticism from much of Europe, including Austria's junior coalition partner, the Greens.

In response to these objections, Austria softened its position earlier this year by lifting entry controls for air and sea traffic on March 31. Despite this, both Bulgaria and Romania continue to report significant economic losses due to waiting times at land borders. As a result, Sofia and Bucharest are closely monitoring Austria’s political developments, hoping for a government shift that might support their Schengen entry.

However, hopes have dimmed with the rise of Austria's Freedom Party. Just before the election, the party announced a new strategy to reduce migrant pressure, focusing on border controls and deportations, driven more by populist rhetoric than practical concerns. Austria has maintained border controls with Germany since 2015, despite Germany accepting asylum seekers mainly from Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, all entitled to refugee status. Countries like the Czech Republic and Poland have hosted a higher proportion of refugees than Germany. Bulgaria has also complied with accepting returned migrants, although their numbers remain low, not due to Bulgarian resistance but Germany's handling of the situation. Austria, however, remains strongly opposed to increasing the number of returned asylum seekers from Germany, with the Freedom Party winning elections on slogans such as "No more foreigners" and "Close the borders."

These developments cast doubt on the likelihood of Bulgaria and Romania joining Schengen anytime soon. Nonetheless, Bulgaria and Romania are eyeing October 10, when Hungary, holding the EU presidency, is expected to propose full membership for both countries. Yet, politicians in both countries are becoming more cautious. Romanian Foreign Minister Luminiţa Odobescu recently remarked that Schengen membership hinges on political decisions after the elections.

Social Democratic Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu expressed hope that the European Social Democrats would be represented in Austria's new government, believing this would facilitate discussions. Romanian MEP Victor Negrescu also expressed optimism, stating that a pro-European Austrian government could help achieve Schengen accession this year.

In contrast, Romania's right-wing AUR party, which placed second in the June parliamentary elections, has been more confrontational. Party co-founder George Simion, running for president in November, criticized Austria's stance, calling for the country to shed its "imperial reflexes." He also vowed to scrutinize Austrian companies operating in Romania if Schengen accession is further delayed.

In April, the AUR and Austria's Freedom Party held a low-level meeting to discuss Schengen and other issues, though there was no public opposition from the Freedom Party regarding Bulgaria's inclusion in the Schengen zone.

In Bulgaria, politicians have been less critical of Austria, instead using the issue to gain electoral support, a strategy noted by the Austrian media. Austrian newspaper "Der Standard" highlighted a remark by Boyko Borissov, who questioned Bulgaria's progress in securing its external borders. Vesela Cherneva, deputy director of the European Council for Foreign Relations, warned that Bulgaria should tread carefully if the Freedom Party joins Austria's next government. Schengen, migration, and Frontex remain sensitive topics for the Freedom Party, and without its participation in the coalition, negotiations on Schengen would likely be smoother.

Freedom Party leader Herbert Kickl has expressed a desire to implement Hungary’s approach, which involves closing borders and rejecting EU plans to distribute refugees, further complicating Bulgaria and Romania’s Schengen aspirations.